Politics / THE CONNECTED PICTURE
Understand US election markets: the difference between nominations and election wins, the role of deadlines, and the evidence behind a candidate’s path.
Continue exploring the coverage, or return to the guide for the context, evidence checklist, and common questions.
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Dates refer to each article’s analysis.
Politics·3 min read
New Hampshire Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
Ohio Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
Nevada Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
Florida Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
Michigan Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
North Carolina Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
A required runoff can extend the decision beyond the first election night. The forecast needs a path through any qualifying second vote, not merely a first-round lead.
Politics·3 min read
A Senate majority and 60 Senate seats are very different thresholds. This event requires the presidency, House control and a Senate supermajority together, so evidence for an ordinary Republican win is insufficient.
Politics·3 min read
Vermont Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
Florida Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
Minnesota Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
The House popular-vote margin and House control can point in different directions. District boundaries and the distribution of votes are absent from this aggregate national margin.
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