Politics / THE CONNECTED PICTURE
Understand US election markets: the difference between nominations and election wins, the role of deadlines, and the evidence behind a candidate’s path.
Continue exploring the coverage, or return to the guide for the context, evidence checklist, and common questions.
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Dates refer to each article’s analysis.
Politics·3 min read
A required runoff can extend the decision beyond the first election night. The forecast needs a path through any qualifying second vote, not merely a first-round lead.
Politics·3 min read
Montana Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
CA-28 is a district-level seat question. National popular-vote strength is informative only insofar as it reaches this electorate, and the contract’s party attribution can matter when a candidate lacks a conventional ballot label.
Politics·3 min read
New York Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
Mississippi Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
CA-15 is a district-level seat question. National popular-vote strength is informative only insofar as it reaches this electorate, and the contract’s party attribution can matter when a candidate lacks a conventional ballot label.
Politics·3 min read
VA-06 is a district-level seat question. National popular-vote strength is informative only insofar as it reaches this electorate, and the contract’s party attribution can matter when a candidate lacks a conventional ballot label.
Politics·3 min read
FL-01 is a district-level seat question. National popular-vote strength is informative only insofar as it reaches this electorate, and the contract’s party attribution can matter when a candidate lacks a conventional ballot label.
Politics·3 min read
MS-01 is a district-level seat question. National popular-vote strength is informative only insofar as it reaches this electorate, and the contract’s party attribution can matter when a candidate lacks a conventional ballot label.
Politics·3 min read
Idaho Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
Iowa’s statewide ballot contains separate governor and Senate choices. A split-ticket possibility should be evaluated separately from a single national-party narrative.
Politics·3 min read
VA-05 is a district-level seat question. National popular-vote strength is informative only insofar as it reaches this electorate, and the contract’s party attribution can matter when a candidate lacks a conventional ballot label.
Showing 37–48 of 53 stories