BEHIND THE STORIES
Follow the attention.
Check the evidence.
1. A transparent selection rule
Our active market feed includes open, eligible events with at least $100,000 in total reported Polymarket trading volume. The default ranking is cumulative volume, highest first. Topic filters help you explore different subjects. Article cards draw from the events we have researched; the most-traded feed may also contain events without a full article yet.
Volume measures transactions. It does not measure unique readers, unique traders, money currently at risk, or confidence in an outcome.
2. Two kinds of pages
Our original features combine research, context and competing explanations. Pages labeled Market explainer focus on the exact event, its contract conditions, relevant sourced context and evidence to watch. Both include sources, and neither implies an independently proven trading advantage. Market snapshots show event data and the source’s description when an Outlook article is not yet available. Snapshot-only pages are excluded from search indexing.
3. Research with an open conclusion
We prioritize official announcements, rules, institutional data and original reporting. AI assists the editorial process. We check the draft against the referenced material and avoid attributing a price change to a particular event without supporting evidence. A useful conclusion may strengthen the prevailing explanation or challenge it.
4. Understand the contract
Market percentages reflect prices under specific conditions. A title can omit important rules about deadlines, qualifying events, ties or resolution sources. We link directly to Polymarket so you can inspect those rules.
Percentages across related contracts should not be assumed to add up to 100%. Some outcomes overlap, refer to different thresholds, or have different deadlines.
5. Freshness is visible
We periodically retrieve the market feed and preserve the timestamp of successful observations. If the source is unavailable, the site serves a dated saved snapshot. An article’s analysis date remains separate from its market data. Discovery runs are scheduled every three hours. A deeper daily review revisits priority stories. Publication follows source checks; a scheduled scan is not a promise that a new article will be ready at that exact time.
6. Open events and the archive
We scan the complete eligible event inventory through Polymarket’s public API. An event needs at least one open contract with recorded trading activity or liquidity. Empty placeholder contracts are excluded. A past scheduled date does not necessarily mean trading has closed; those pages identify the remaining settlement question.
Only events we first tracked while open can enter our Closed positions archive. They move there when Polymarket confirms closure. A failed lookup is not treated as a closed event, and the original article URL stays available.
7. Useful questions and accountable authorship
We use actual search questions to improve an article’s focus, without treating trading volume as search volume. We answer established facts directly. Search visibility is never a reason to manufacture uncertainty or fill a page with loosely related references.
Our editorial desk explains the organizational byline, AI assistance and publication responsibility. Our market-attention report makes the underlying category calculations available for inspection.
8. Corrections and independence
The Outlook is published by Home Income Lab and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket. We do not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice. If you identify an error, send the article URL, the disputed claim and a supporting source to hello@homeincomelab.com.