Politics / THE CONNECTED PICTURE
Understand US election markets: the difference between nominations and election wins, the role of deadlines, and the evidence behind a candidate’s path.
Continue exploring the coverage, or return to the guide for the context, evidence checklist, and common questions.
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Dates refer to each article’s analysis.
Politics·3 min read
Alaska’s ranked ballot makes later preferences relevant when no candidate wins immediately. A first-choice survey is therefore not a complete forecast of the final count.
Politics·3 min read
Ohio Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
Kansas Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
Iowa’s statewide ballot contains separate governor and Senate choices. A split-ticket possibility should be evaluated separately from a single national-party narrative.
Politics·3 min read
Wisconsin Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
The Republican governorship count question requires adding individual election outcomes under a fixed set of attribution rules. A national polling lead does not directly translate into the relevant seats.
Politics·3 min read
South Carolina Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·2 min read
This is a question about the election taking place on the specified day. It does not predict which party wins or whether every result is certified that night.
Politics·3 min read
Nebraska Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·2 min read
A legislature can adopt a map without that map ultimately governing the election. The consequential uncertainty is the map that survives the legal process and is actually used.
Politics·3 min read
Texas Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Politics·3 min read
The Republican House seat count question requires adding individual election outcomes under a fixed set of attribution rules. A national polling lead does not directly translate into the relevant seats.
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