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Politics

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

The Democratic president nomination is a selection contest before the general election. Popularity with the whole country and support inside the party are different electorates; a familiar name is only the beginning of a nomination case.

3 min read·$1.29B traded

Politics

Who will win the 2028 election? The race inside the early odds

A candidate can lead the prediction market while remaining far more likely to lose. The missing context is the route from possible contender to nominee to president.

6 min read·$712.6M traded

Politics

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

The Republican president nomination is a selection contest before the general election. Popularity with the whole country and support inside the party are different electorates; a familiar name is only the beginning of a nomination case.

3 min read·$709.4M traded

Politics

Ethiopia’s next prime minister: why the swearing-in matters

A candidate’s electoral strength and completion of the government-formation process are different questions. This contract links the two, making the formal assumption of office the decisive evidence.

2 min read·$286.1M traded

Sports

F1 title race: why Antonelli’s points buffer matters

A championship lead and a race-winning car are different advantages. The remaining points, rather than a single weekend, determine the pursuit.

4 min read·$203.7M traded

Politics

Brazil Presidential Election

A first-round lead and an eventual election victory are different achievements. The final-winner question must account for how support combines if a runoff is needed.

3 min read·$165.2M traded

Politics

Next French Presidential Election

The French election has several separate milestones. This event concerns winning the presidency, so evidence about a different stage must be translated carefully before it changes the answer.

3 min read·$143.4M traded

World

Netanyahu’s 2026 exit: why an election and a departure are different events

Coalition arithmetic, caretaker continuity and an unusually important announcement clause determine what would count as Netanyahu leaving office.

3 min read·$124.5M traded

World

Venezuela’s leader at the end of 2026: the formal office test

Maduro led the observed prices, but the settlement question is precise: who officially holds the head-of-state role at noon on December 31?

3 min read·$98M traded

World

Kharg Island: disruption of oil exports is different from a transfer of control

The island’s strategic importance explains the attention. The contract still requires another authority to establish actual control, not merely damage or a landing.

3 min read·$75.4M traded

Crypto

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026: the price condition behind the forecast

A brief threshold crossing and a price at a particular closing time are different events, even when the same dollar figure appears in both headlines.

3 min read·$72.7M traded

World

A U.S. invasion of Iran in 2026: the question is territorial intent

The contract asks whether an offensive aimed at controlling Iranian land begins, not whether the United States occupies the whole country.

3 min read·$71.5M traded

Showing 1–12 of 926 stories

Find yournext perspective.

Explore our stories

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Who will win the 2028 election? The race inside the early odds

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Ethiopia’s next prime minister: why the swearing-in matters

F1 title race: why Antonelli’s points buffer matters

Brazil Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election

Netanyahu’s 2026 exit: why an election and a departure are different events

Venezuela’s leader at the end of 2026: the formal office test

Kharg Island: disruption of oil exports is different from a transfer of control

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026: the price condition behind the forecast

A U.S. invasion of Iran in 2026: the question is territorial intent

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