Politics / THE CONNECTED PICTURE
US elections: candidates, nominations and the path to power
Understand US election markets: the difference between nominations and election wins, the role of deadlines, and the evidence behind a candidate’s path.
53 source-linked storiesOpen and archived coverage
BEFORE THE NEXT HEADLINE
A useful way to read the story
An election is a sequence of decisions, not one continuous popularity contest. A candidate can attract attention without securing a nomination; a party can win a prominent race without controlling a chamber. The first useful question is which of those outcomes a story is actually discussing.
This guide brings together presidential races, nominations, congressional contests, and state elections. Read them as distinct tests of the same political environment. A development that helps one candidate need not help every candidate in that party, and the outcome of one race does not mechanically settle the next.
The articles below identify the specific result, the timing condition, and the evidence needed to distinguish a plausible campaign narrative from a qualifying outcome. Their market snapshots describe expectations when checked, while official decisions and results determine what actually happened.
EVIDENCE TO LOOK FOR
The election or nomination result identified in the article’s rules, with its official source and timing.
AN ASSUMPTION TO QUESTION
A popular candidate, a favorable poll, or a large traded volume guarantees the eventual result.
A FEW PLACES TO BEGIN
See all 53 stories Start with these questions
FOLLOW EVERY THREAD
All us elections stories
Highest recorded trading volume first.
Dates refer to each article’s analysis.
Politics·4 min read
Who could be the Democratic nominee in 2028? Candidates, calendar and key tests
The early-state calendar is approved. The harder question is which prospective candidate can turn attention into a durable coalition.
Analysis updated Read the story
Politics·6 min read
Who will win the 2028 election? The race inside the early odds
A candidate can lead the prediction market while remaining far more likely to lose. The missing context is the route from possible contender to nominee to president.
Analysis updated Read the story
Politics·4 min read
Who could succeed Trump as the 2028 Republican nominee?
JD Vance leads this market snapshot, but the route runs through a party contest. Here is what is known about eligibility, candidates and the nomination process.
Analysis updated Read the story
Politics·3 min read
California Governor Election Winner
California’s candidate contest should be read alongside its top-two election structure. The general-election question concerns the surviving candidates, not the larger original field.
Analysis updated Read the story
Politics·3 min read
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
The House and Senate outcomes are correlated because they share an election environment. Multiplying two standalone market probabilities would assume independence that this joint event does not establish.
Analysis updated Read the story
Politics·2 min read
California’s billionaire tax market has a ballot-qualification hurdle
Support for taxing wealthy residents is broader than support for this exact ballot measure. Certification, wording and the result are separate conditions, each capable of deciding the contract.
Analysis updated Read the story
Politics·3 min read
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
The Republican Senate seat count question requires adding individual election outcomes under a fixed set of attribution rules. A national polling lead does not directly translate into the relevant seats.
Analysis updated Read the story
Politics·3 min read
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
The party winner question can remain stable while the leading individual changes. It bundles many possible nominees into a single electoral outcome.
Analysis updated Read the story
Politics·3 min read
Maine Senate Election Winner
Maine’s federal general-election ranked-choice process makes transfer patterns relevant; a narrow first-choice lead is not the whole path to winning.
Analysis updated Read the story
Politics·3 min read
Texas Senate Election Winner
Texas Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Analysis updated Read the story
Politics·3 min read
Alaska Governor Election Winner
Alaska’s ranked ballot makes later preferences relevant when no candidate wins immediately. A first-choice survey is therefore not a complete forecast of the final count.
Analysis updated Read the story
Politics·3 min read
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Michigan Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.
Analysis updated Read the story
Showing 1–12 of 53 stories
THE QUESTIONS BEHIND THE QUESTIONS
Worth knowing
Clear distinctions make the next headline easier to assess.
Is a prediction-market percentage a vote share?
No. It is a price for a particular outcome under a particular contract. It does not say what proportion of voters supports a candidate, and it should not be substituted for polling or an official count.
Why are nomination and election markets separate?
They ask different questions. Becoming the party’s nominee is one hurdle; winning the subsequent election is another. Check which hurdle the article covers before treating news about a candidate as evidence for both.
Can I compare the odds of different election races?
You can compare the questions and their evidence, but percentages from different contests are not parts of one total. Check whether the outcomes are mutually exclusive and whether the deadlines and resolution sources match.
GO TO THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Sources used in the starting stories
These are selected references from the articles above. Each story carries its full source list and the date its evidence was checked.
- USAGov: presidential primaries and caucuses usa.gov
- National Archives: What is the Electoral College? archives.gov
- Federal Election Commission: Registering as a candidate fec.gov
- White House: Vice President JD Vance whitehouse.gov
- National Archives: Electoral College History archives.gov