World·4 min read
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31: the evidence and conditions to watch
The weapon, initiator and impact location matter. Deterrence and coercion create different incentives.
Analysis updated Read the story
World / THE CONNECTED PICTURE
Global security: conflicts, ceasefires and what an agreement actually changes
Read conflict, ceasefire and security-agreement coverage with clear distinctions between statements, verified actions, timing conditions and outcomes.
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World·4 min read
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
Control is a more demanding claim than presence. A map can show an advance without proving that the entire named settlement is controlled.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
An attack and an attempt to seize territory are different events. For this question, the missing step is the transition from military pressure to an operation aimed at establishing control.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
Control is a more demanding claim than presence. A map can show an advance without proving that the entire named settlement is controlled.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
The weapon, initiator and impact location matter. Deterrence and coercion create different incentives.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31: the evidence and conditions to watch
The weapon, initiator and impact location matter. Deterrence and coercion create different incentives.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31: the evidence and conditions to watch
The weapon, initiator and impact location matter. Deterrence and coercion create different incentives.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
Control is a more demanding claim than presence. A map can show an advance without proving that the entire named settlement is controlled.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31: the evidence and conditions to watch
Control is a more demanding claim than presence. A map can show an advance without proving that the entire named settlement is controlled.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
An attack and an attempt to seize territory are different events. For this question, the missing step is the transition from military pressure to an operation aimed at establishing control.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31: the evidence and conditions to watch
A promise to stop fighting is only one stage. Negotiators may agree on a statement before commanders can enforce it everywhere.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
NATO article 5 before 2027: the evidence and conditions to watch
Alliance procedures are not interchangeable. An alliance can face a severe dispute without a member leaving, and it can consult without invoking collective defense.
Analysis updated Read the story
Showing 49–60 of 93 stories