World·4 min read
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
The weapon, initiator and impact location matter. Deterrence and coercion create different incentives.
Analysis updated Read the story
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Global security: conflicts, ceasefires and what an agreement actually changes
Read conflict, ceasefire and security-agreement coverage with clear distinctions between statements, verified actions, timing conditions and outcomes.
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Dates refer to each article’s analysis.
World·4 min read
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
The weapon, initiator and impact location matter. Deterrence and coercion create different incentives.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
An attack and an attempt to seize territory are different events. For this question, the missing step is the transition from military pressure to an operation aimed at establishing control.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
Alliance procedures are not interchangeable. An alliance can face a severe dispute without a member leaving, and it can consult without invoking collective defense.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
China x Japan military clash before 2027: the evidence and conditions to watch
The weapon, initiator and impact location matter. Deterrence and coercion create different incentives.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31: the evidence and conditions to watch
The weapon, initiator and impact location matter. Deterrence and coercion create different incentives.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027: the evidence and conditions to watch
Alliance procedures are not interchangeable. An alliance can face a severe dispute without a member leaving, and it can consult without invoking collective defense.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
Control is a more demanding claim than presence. A map can show an advance without proving that the entire named settlement is controlled.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31: the evidence and conditions to watch
Control is a more demanding claim than presence. A map can show an advance without proving that the entire named settlement is controlled.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
Control is a more demanding claim than presence. A map can show an advance without proving that the entire named settlement is controlled.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027: the evidence and conditions to watch
Control is a more demanding claim than presence. A map can show an advance without proving that the entire named settlement is controlled.
Analysis updated Read the story
World·4 min read
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch
Technical capability and a qualifying nuclear event are separate. Separate a stockpile of material, the ability to produce a device, possession of an operational weapon and an actual test.
Analysis updated Read the story
Showing 25–36 of 93 stories