What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

The question behind the headline

The title sounds like a December 31 snapshot, but the operative rule normally locks in the December meeting decision. That difference matters if policy changes again late in the month.

At the October 4, 2026 market snapshot, 4.25% carried a 48.05% Yes price. Other open contracts included 4.0% at 27.8%; ≥ 4.5% at 11.05%. ^[1]

The condition that changes the answer

Use the target range upper bound after the December FOMC meeting, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points; exact midpoints round away from zero. ^[1]

December 8–9, 2026 is the scheduled meeting. If no December decision arrives by December 31 at 11:59 p.m. ET, use the upper bound then. ^[1]

Evidence for and against the leading outcome

The leading level needs the cumulative path from the present rate to land in that exact rounded bracket.

Different sequences of hikes and cuts can end elsewhere; a correct view on October alone is insufficient.

The next useful checks are upper bound entering December; december decision; any missing-statement fallback. The linked primary references make the process and named data source inspectable. ^[2][3]

A closer look at the market

The leading listed option was 20.25 percentage points above the next quoted option. That difference measures market pricing, not a vote margin or a measured lead in real-world evidence. A leading price below 50% means the market can favor this option over each rival without treating it as more likely than all alternatives combined.

The event had approximately $6,910,038 in total traded volume at observation. That is a record of turnover across this event, not a count of distinct people, a search-volume estimate or proof that every child contract is easy to trade. The analytical quote is fixed to the timestamp shown here; later live prices can differ. ^[1]

The useful conclusion is conditional: the leading option needs to satisfy the whole outcome definition, not just one favorable part of the story.