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Oct 4, 2026/THE DAILY OUTLOOK

A LITTLE DEEPER. A LOT CLEARER.

The latest in world

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291 stories

World

Netanyahu’s 2026 exit: why an election and a departure are different events

Coalition arithmetic, caretaker continuity and an unusually important announcement clause determine what would count as Netanyahu leaving office.

3 min read·$124.5M traded

World

Venezuela’s leader at the end of 2026: the formal office test

Maduro led the observed prices, but the settlement question is precise: who officially holds the head-of-state role at noon on December 31?

3 min read·$98M traded

World

Kharg Island: disruption of oil exports is different from a transfer of control

The island’s strategic importance explains the attention. The contract still requires another authority to establish actual control, not merely damage or a landing.

3 min read·$75.4M traded

World

A U.S. invasion of Iran in 2026: the question is territorial intent

The contract asks whether an offensive aimed at controlling Iranian land begins, not whether the United States occupies the whole country.

3 min read·$71.5M traded

World

China and Taiwan in 2026: the invasion market extends beyond the main island

A qualifying offensive can target inhabited outlying territory. Exercises, a blockade and a successful conquest are separate questions.

3 min read·$43.5M traded

World

Iran’s leader at the end of 2026: who commands the state matters more than the title

The constitution explains formal succession. This contract instead requires evidence of effective governing authority at a specific December checkpoint.

3 min read·$39.8M traded

World

Ending the U.S. blockade of Iran: the announcement can come before the ships move

A definitive official decision is the trigger. A safer shipping environment and a lasting diplomatic settlement are broader questions.

3 min read·$35.3M traded

World

The Israel–Iran ceasefire market: which incidents actually break the contract?

A narrow test of direct air and missile impacts differs from a broad judgment about peace. Attribution, weapon type and the Iran-time deadline matter.

3 min read·$32.6M traded

World

Iran’s enriched uranium: a U.S. possession market, not simply a deal announcement

Any amount can qualify, and the material need not reach U.S. soil. The missing step in a diplomatic headline may be actual custody.

3 min read·$29.5M traded

World

Putin leaving office in 2026: the evidence must show an exit, not just uncertainty

The contract counts an announced resignation or removal before it takes effect, while also covering specified forms of effective removal.

3 min read·$27.2M traded

World

Iran leadership change by December 31: the evidence and conditions to watch

A title, governing authority and a transfer of power can diverge. The decisive evidence is institutional: an effective resignation, replacement, removal or loss of authority that meets the rules.

3 min read·$26.7M traded

World

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027: the evidence and conditions to watch

A title, governing authority and a transfer of power can diverge. The decisive evidence is institutional: an effective resignation, replacement, removal or loss of authority that meets the rules.

4 min read·$26.7M traded

Showing 1–12 of 291 stories

World.The bigger picture.

The latest in world

Netanyahu’s 2026 exit: why an election and a departure are different events

Venezuela’s leader at the end of 2026: the formal office test

Kharg Island: disruption of oil exports is different from a transfer of control

A U.S. invasion of Iran in 2026: the question is territorial intent

China and Taiwan in 2026: the invasion market extends beyond the main island

Iran’s leader at the end of 2026: who commands the state matters more than the title

Ending the U.S. blockade of Iran: the announcement can come before the ships move

The Israel–Iran ceasefire market: which incidents actually break the contract?

Iran’s enriched uranium: a U.S. possession market, not simply a deal announcement

Putin leaving office in 2026: the evidence must show an exit, not just uncertainty

Iran leadership change by December 31: the evidence and conditions to watch

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027: the evidence and conditions to watch

Less noise.More perspective.

World.
The bigger picture.

Less noise.
More perspective.