Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

The question behind the headline

A sequence forecast contains more information than a final-rate forecast. Hike–pause–hike and pause–hike–hike can end at the same rate yet resolve differently.

At the October 4, 2026 market snapshot, Hike–Pause–Hike carried a 63.5% Yes price. Other open contracts included Hike–Pause–Pause at 22.5%; Hike–Hike–Hike at 10.5%. ^[1]

The condition that changes the answer

Read the upper-bound change at the September 15–16, October 27–28 and December 8–9 meetings, in order. Any cut or unlisted combination resolves Other; emergency changes do not count. ^[1]

The final leg is the December 8–9, 2026 decision. ^[1]

Evidence for and against the leading outcome

The leading path needs every listed meeting direction to match; the later legs must remain consistent with incoming evidence.

One mismatching leg defeats a sequence even when the total change over the three meetings is correct.

The next useful checks are september statement as the fixed first leg; october direction; december direction. The linked primary references make the process and named data source inspectable. ^[2][3]

A closer look at the market

The leading listed option was 41.00 percentage points above the next quoted option. That difference measures market pricing, not a vote margin or a measured lead in real-world evidence. A price above 50% still leaves room for another outcome; it is not a guarantee or an independently validated forecast.

The event had approximately $230,459 in total traded volume at observation. That is a record of turnover across this event, not a count of distinct people, a search-volume estimate or proof that every child contract is easy to trade. The analytical quote is fixed to the timestamp shown here; later live prices can differ. ^[1]

The useful conclusion is conditional: the leading option needs to satisfy the whole outcome definition, not just one favorable part of the story.