Crude Oil all time high by...?
The conditions, incentives and evidence that could shape the answer.The question behind the headline
A new oil record depends on the contract and measurement chosen. This event uses the active CME crude future’s daily high, so neither a retail gasoline price nor a different benchmark settles it.
At the October 4, 2026 market snapshot, December 31 carried a 10.5% Yes price. [1]
The condition that changes the answer
The official active-month CME CL daily high must be greater than $147.27. The active month rolls two business days before spot-month expiry; an exactly equal high does not qualify. [1]
Each selected child has its own final trading date. For the December 31 child, use the final trading day on or before that date; allow 14 calendar days for missing final data. [1]
Evidence for and against the leading outcome
A supply-demand shock that drives the specified futures high beyond the historical dollar threshold supports Yes.
Another oil benchmark can set a record while CL does not; a rise that only matches $147.27 also falls short.
The next useful checks are active contract around rollover; official daily High field; strictly greater than $147.27. The linked primary references make the process and named data source inspectable. [2][3]
A closer look at the market
These child contracts can overlap: different dates, thresholds or people do not necessarily describe mutually exclusive alternatives. Their Yes prices should not be added into a single winner probability, and the highest Yes price is not automatically the most informative question.
The event had approximately $4,614,374 in total traded volume at observation. That is a record of turnover across this event, not a count of distinct people, a search-volume estimate or proof that every child contract is easy to trade. The analytical quote is fixed to the timestamp shown here; later live prices can differ. [1]
The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story.
WEIGH BOTH SIDES
What would change the outlook?
December 31 — Yes
Quoted market evidence: Oct 4, 2026, 09:57 UTC. The live market panel may show a newer observation.
A supply-demand shock that drives the specified futures high beyond the historical dollar threshold supports Yes.
Another oil benchmark can set a record while CL does not; a rise that only matches $147.27 also falls short.
The next signals to watch
- Active contract around rollover
- Official daily High field
- Strictly greater than $147.27
The analysis starts from 10.5% for the Yes side of “December 31”. A view merely agreeing that this is plausible does not show that the price understates it. The probability, rule and remaining time all have to be compared. [1]
The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story.
A FEW GOOD QUESTIONS
What else should you know?
What exactly would settle this market?
The official active-month CME CL daily high must be greater than $147.27. The active month rolls two business days before spot-month expiry; an exactly equal high does not qualify. [1]
What is the deadline, and can settlement come later?
Each selected child has its own final trading date. For the December 31 child, use the final trading day on or before that date; allow 14 calendar days for missing final data. [1]
Does the quoted probability show an advantage?
No. 10.5% is the observed Yes price for “December 31”, not a verified probability from independent research. A useful assessment needs evidence that changes the expected chance under the exact rules, plus the actual price available at the time. [1]
CHECK THE EVIDENCE
Sources & further reading
- Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules ↗polymarket.com
- cmegroup.com — official source ↗cmegroup.com
- cmegroup.com — official source ↗cmegroup.com
Published . AI-assisted, source-linked analysis. We distinguish evidence from interpretation; this article does not establish a trading edge. How we work →
