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926 stories

US alien confirmation: the difference between an unexplained sighting and an official finding

An unidentified object is an unanswered question, not evidence of extraterrestrial origin. This market turns on an authorized US statement, making the identity and exact wording of the speaker more important than a dramatic video.

3 min read·$71.4M traded

The Second Coming market: why a price cannot settle a religious belief

This question combines a theological belief with a financial contract whose evidence standard is a consensus of credible sources. A traded percentage is not a scientific estimate of a supernatural event, nor a verdict on anyone’s faith.

3 min read·$66.3M traded

Pro Football: 2027 Champion: the route behind the leading odds

What must happen for the NFL league championship, how the leading prices compare, and which official evidence would change the picture.

4 min read·$62.9M traded

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

A year with fewer cuts is not necessarily a year with fewer policy decisions. This question counts the size of easing, so one large response can cross several outcome brackets at once.

3 min read·$53.9M traded

Champions League 2027: Barcelona leads a very open field

League-phase progress and lifting the trophy require different things. The route through Europe matters as much as reputation.

4 min read·$45M traded

Ballon d’Or 2026: Kane, Yamal and the season that already ended

The market is nearly split between a prolific scorer and a World Cup-winning creator. Understanding the voting window matters more than another October highlight.

4 min read·$43.8M traded

China and Taiwan in 2026: the invasion market extends beyond the main island

A qualifying offensive can target inhabited outlying territory. Exercises, a blockade and a successful conquest are separate questions.

3 min read·$43.5M traded

MLB World Series Champion 2026: the route behind the leading odds

What must happen for the World Series, how the leading prices compare, and which official evidence would change the picture.

3 min read·$43.2M traded

Israel’s next prime minister: a seat lead is only the first hurdle

Winning the most seats is not the same contract as becoming prime minister. Coalition arrangements and the actual oath can therefore matter more than the largest party’s headline vote share.

2 min read·$42.4M traded

California Governor Election Winner

California’s candidate contest should be read alongside its top-two election structure. The general-election question concerns the surviving candidates, not the larger original field.

3 min read·$41.6M traded

Iran’s leader at the end of 2026: who commands the state matters more than the title

The constitution explains formal succession. This contract instead requires evidence of effective governing authority at a specific December checkpoint.

3 min read·$39.8M traded

The Greenland market turns on an official sovereignty agreement

The decisive gap is between expressing a territorial ambition and documenting a formal agreement. The contract can settle on an official commitment without waiting for every administrative consequence.

2 min read·$35.6M traded

Showing 13–24 of 926 stories

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