POLITICS / THE OUTLOOK

Politics.
Power, in perspective.

Elections turn on more than the latest poll. Leadership contests, legislation and court decisions each have their own rules, deadlines and incentives. Explore the political events attracting trading activity, with the evidence and assumptions behind each market made clear.

Oct 4, 2026/THE DAILY OUTLOOK

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191 stories

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

The French election has several separate milestones. This event concerns qualifying for the ballot, so evidence about a different stage must be translated carefully before it changes the answer.

3 min read·$496K traded

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Nebraska Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.

3 min read·$491.1K traded

Taipei mayoral election: the contract follows the elected mayor

The useful distinction is between popularity, a preliminary count and the election result that delivers the office. The contract follows that last link.

2 min read·$480.7K traded

Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?

The next press secretary’s identity is decided by the first qualifying permanent-selection announcement, rather than the first person who temporarily appears at a briefing.

3 min read·$477.7K traded

Arrest markets: why a named outcome is not an allegation of guilt

Several people could satisfy separate contracts, and none of these prices establishes guilt or confirms that a case exists. The evidence must concern an actual qualifying custodial event.

2 min read·$476.5K traded

New congressional maps: enactment is only part of the test

A legislature can adopt a map without that map ultimately governing the election. The consequential uncertainty is the map that survives the legal process and is actually used.

2 min read·$418.4K traded

Texas Governor Election Winner

Texas Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.

3 min read·$412.1K traded

Venezuela’s year-end leader: effective control is the written test

The contract separates international recognition from control of institutions inside Venezuela. The central evidence concerns who can direct and enforce executive decisions at the specified moment.

2 min read·$408.1K traded

ACA tax credits and House control: one contract, two conditions

The policy leg’s observation window is already over. This should be analyzed as a joint contract with a historical condition and an electoral condition, rather than two fresh future forecasts.

2 min read·$408.1K traded

Lima’s mayoral market: election-day attention still needs a result

On the date named for voting, a market quote remains distinct from the election authority’s result. The meaningful update is the documented result rather than the intensity of campaign attention.

2 min read·$404.3K traded

Quebec’s next premier: the appointment is a separate outcome

The party seat winner and the person appointed premier are related but distinct settlement questions. This market requires the latter institutional step.

2 min read·$392.8K traded

Jimmy Lai release market: a transfer is different from release

A report that someone has left a prison building can describe very different legal situations. The question is whether the custodial status changed in the qualifying way.

2 min read·$389.4K traded

Showing 73–84 of 191 stories

Politics.Power, in perspective.