Abbotsford–Mission’s canceled by-election leaves a settlement question

The condition behind the headline

Elections BC confirms that this by-election was canceled when a provincial general election was called. The remaining market is therefore a settlement question about a canceled contest, not an upcoming by-election forecast. ^[4]

The contract follows the winner of the next Abbotsford–Mission by-election to British Columbia’s legislature. It identifies a September 26, 2026 schedule and a later results fallback. ^[2]

Elections BC says by-election voting ended and ballots already cast do not carry over to the provincial general election. ^[4]

What the market snapshot can tell you

At the October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC retrieval, the selected Yes contract—“Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?”—was quoted at 4.4%. The event had $134,125 in cumulative volume. These are a dated price snapshot and event-wide turnover, respectively. ^[1][2]

The event contains multiple separate contracts. The selected quote should not be treated as an exhaustive ranking of all outcomes, and each contract’s own terms remain relevant. ^[1][2] The API reported event-level liquidity of $48,180 at retrieval. That aggregate does not establish the executable depth or spread of this individual position. ^[1]

The evidence that could change the reading

A general-election result in the constituency is not automatically the result of the by-election described by the contract.

The useful checks are elections bc’s cancellation notice; polymarket clarification for the canceled contest. Those checks connect the public story to the settlement condition instead of treating attention as confirmation. ^[2]

The deadline and the interpretation trap

The canceled by-election had been scheduled for September 26, 2026. The contract’s definitive-results fallback is March 31, 2027 at 11:59 p.m. ET; cancellation requires reading the contract’s actual clarification and resolution state. ^{[4] [2]}

The contract specifies a by-election, not any election in the district. That detail narrows the question being priced and is worth checking before comparing this contract with a broader political prediction. ^[2]