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Oct 22, 2026/THE DAILY OUTLOOK

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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028$1.30B Presidential Election Winner 2028$718.2M Republican Presidential Nominee 2028$714.1M

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801 stories

Jimmy Lai release market: a transfer is different from release

A report that someone has left a prison building can describe very different legal situations. The question is whether the custodial status changed in the qualifying way.

2 min read·$391.6K traded

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Michigan Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.

3 min read·$391K traded

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

A sequence forecast contains more information than a final-rate forecast. Hike–pause–hike and pause–hike–hike can end at the same rate yet resolve differently.

3 min read·$388.4K traded

Felix FDV valuation thresholds one day after launch: the launch hurdle behind the valuation odds

This is a one-minute closing observation at noon Eastern, not a test of whether the asset ever visits the level that day. A price spike can therefore be irrelevant to the result.

4 min read·$386.1K traded

Hyperbeat FDV valuation thresholds one day after launch: the launch hurdle behind the valuation odds

This is a one-minute closing observation at noon Eastern, not a test of whether the asset ever visits the level that day. A price spike can therefore be irrelevant to the result.

3 min read·$383.1K traded

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026: why a proposed solution and a proven result differ

The market explicitly tests an eligible AI lab’s claimed solution, while Clay’s prize process asks a different question. It excludes Navier–Stokes, so the set of qualifying problems matters as much as the word solution.

3 min read·$382.8K traded

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31: the evidence and conditions to watch

A title, governing authority and a transfer of power can diverge. The decisive evidence is institutional: an effective resignation, replacement, removal or loss of authority that meets the rules.

3 min read·$375.6K traded

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch

Control is a more demanding claim than presence. A map can show an advance without proving that the entire named settlement is controlled.

4 min read·$367.1K traded

Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

The question is about Sébastien Lecornu’s tenure in the French premiership, not general approval or the intensity of criticism. The decisive distinction is the contract’s stated departure trigger.

3 min read·$366.7K traded

Which company has the best AI model end of November: what the AI leaderboard can establish

A leaderboard can identify a winner under its own evaluation procedure without identifying the best system for every user or task.

3 min read·$366.5K traded

Government shutdown and House control: separate the two legs

The shutdown leg refers to an elapsed window. Current shutdown discussion cannot simply be substituted for that historical condition when evaluating the remaining House leg.

2 min read·$362.4K traded

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?

A bankruptcy-announcement market is not a general vote on whether OpenAI has an attractive business. Its decisive evidence is a definite authorized announcement, so financing stress and legal filing are separate steps.

3 min read·$360.5K traded

Showing 433–444 of 801 stories

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Big events.
The bigger picture.

A world of topics. Your starting point.

Open positions

Jimmy Lai release market: a transfer is different from release

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Felix FDV valuation thresholds one day after launch: the launch hurdle behind the valuation odds

Hyperbeat FDV valuation thresholds one day after launch: the launch hurdle behind the valuation odds

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026: why a proposed solution and a proven result differ

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31: the evidence and conditions to watch

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch

Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

Which company has the best AI model end of November: what the AI leaderboard can establish

Government shutdown and House control: separate the two legs

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?

Also on our radar

Hornets vs. Nets

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Bucks vs. Wizards

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

Less noise.
More perspective.

Big events.The bigger picture.

A world of topics. Your starting point.

Open positions

Jimmy Lai release market: a transfer is different from release

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Felix FDV valuation thresholds one day after launch: the launch hurdle behind the valuation odds

Hyperbeat FDV valuation thresholds one day after launch: the launch hurdle behind the valuation odds

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026: why a proposed solution and a proven result differ

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31: the evidence and conditions to watch

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch

Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

Which company has the best AI model end of November: what the AI leaderboard can establish

Government shutdown and House control: separate the two legs

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?

Also on our radar

Hornets vs. Nets

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Bucks vs. Wizards

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

Less noise.More perspective.

Big events.
The bigger picture.

Less noise.
More perspective.