Total commitments for the Jumper ($JUMP) public sale on Legion
The conditions, incentives and evidence that could shape the answer.Total commitments for the Jumper ($JUMP) public sale on Legion: the question behind the price
Commitments and final proceeds are different measurements. This contract can count an observed commitment total even if money is later refunded. In the snapshot checked October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC, the focus outcome, >50M, was quoted at 0.95%. [1]
As a comparison, Coinbase explicitly distinguishes requested and final allocations. Legion’s own written condition governs this separate sale. [3] This contract explicitly preserves a qualifying crossing even if money is later refunded. Our interpretation is that it measures a moment of displayed demand, which need not equal final capital retained by the project or tokens allocated to each participant.
The displayed commitment peak is the test
Uses Legion’s displayed Jumper commitments strictly above the chosen threshold before October 5, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. Later refunds do not undo a crossing. Unverifiable, cancelled or rescheduled-past-deadline sales resolve No; an extension only helps before the fixed cutoff. [2]
The practical implication for >50M is to distinguish necessary conditions from supporting clues. A plausible explanation can help identify what to investigate, but the outcome still turns on evidence satisfying the specified test. Distinguish the commitment peak this contract measures from final fundraising proceeds.
What the other prices and the trading record reveal
The comparison with >60M, quoted at 0.45%, gives a 0.50-percentage-point spread against >50M. That is a difference in quoted expectations, not a measured performance margin. Before treating the outcomes as a complete probability distribution, check whether they are mutually exclusive and whether a None, Other or fallback outcome is included. [1]
This event recorded $175,592 in cumulative turnover across its life. The captured record contains 2 eligible open constituent contracts. Those are the scope of this snapshot, not a count of independent forecasters. [1]
The next evidence that would change the assessment
For this event, watch the official Jumper sale page’s displayed total; evidence of a strict threshold crossing before October 5; the written cancellation and source-unavailability fallbacks. [2]
The next meaningful update is evidence about the required milestone or measurement. A changed quote by itself does not identify what happened or why. The official Legion sale page displaying commitments strictly above the focus threshold before the cutoff would support Yes. A total equal to the boundary, an unverifiable figure or a sale moved beyond the cutoff would fail the written test.
WEIGH BOTH SIDES
What would change the outlook?
Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?
Quoted market evidence: Oct 4, 2026, 09:57 UTC. The live market panel may show a newer observation.
The official Legion sale page displaying commitments strictly above the focus threshold before the cutoff would support Yes. [2]
A total equal to the boundary, an unverifiable figure or a sale moved beyond the cutoff would fail the written test. [2]
The next signals to watch
The observed 0.95% quote is the captured market expectation for >50M. Publicly known conditions alone do not establish that this price is too high or too low. [1]
Distinguish the commitment peak this contract measures from final fundraising proceeds.
A FEW GOOD QUESTIONS
What else should you know?
Total commitments for the Jumper ($JUMP) public sale on Legion
The selected condition, >50M, was priced at 0.95% when checked October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. Commitments and final proceeds are different measurements. This contract can count an observed commitment total even if money is later refunded. [1]
What evidence would be decisive for this particular outcome?
The key observations are the official Jumper sale page’s displayed total; evidence of a strict threshold crossing before October 5; the written cancellation and source-unavailability fallbacks. The full linked contract governs exceptions. [2]
Does this market price prove the event will happen?
No. 0.95% describes the quoted focus condition in a dated snapshot. It is not a verified forecast, an official result or evidence that all participants independently evaluated the same information. [1]
CHECK THE EVIDENCE
Sources & further reading
- Polymarket: Total commitments for the Jumper ($JUMP) public sale on Legion — observed event and constituent prices ↗polymarket.com
- Polymarket: Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale? — exact resolution rules ↗polymarket.com
- Coinbase: Token sale allocation mechanics, contextual comparison ↗help.coinbase.com
Published . AI-assisted, source-linked analysis. We distinguish evidence from interpretation; this article does not establish a trading edge. How we work →
