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926 stories

Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner

A first-round lead and an eventual election victory are different achievements. The final-winner question must account for how support combines if a runoff is needed.

3 min read·$143.3K traded

Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch

A shipping route can be legally open and commercially unusable. For operators, a route’s usability depends on physical security, insurance, port access and dependable passage.

4 min read·$143.1K traded

Epstein disclosures and charges: the source of the case matters

A charge occurring after publication is not automatically caused by it. The contract requires a link between the disclosed information and the charging decision.

2 min read·$143K traded

Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch

Control is a more demanding claim than presence. A map can show an advance without proving that the entire named settlement is controlled.

4 min read·$142.7K traded

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31: the evidence and conditions to watch

A title, governing authority and a transfer of power can diverge. The decisive evidence is institutional: an effective resignation, replacement, removal or loss of authority that meets the rules.

3 min read·$142.7K traded

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027: the evidence and conditions to watch

Peak intensity is not necessarily landfall intensity. The crucial combination is the landfall location and the intensity at that moment.

4 min read·$142.4K traded

Russia coup attempt in 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch

A title, governing authority and a transfer of power can diverge. The decisive evidence is institutional: an effective resignation, replacement, removal or loss of authority that meets the rules.

4 min read·$141.9K traded

Second-biggest opening weekend: being too successful can lose this bet

This is an exact-rank contract. A movie can exceed expectations so strongly that it finishes first—and thereby fails a bet that specifically requires second place.

3 min read·$141.9K traded

Which company has the best AI model end of November: what the AI leaderboard can establish

A leaderboard can identify a winner under its own evaluation procedure without identifying the best system for every user or task.

3 min read·$141.7K traded

Will Databricks' valuation hit what level by December 31: which valuation evidence actually counts

This is a specified private-market data-series test, not a general contest between financing headlines. A company can announce an impressive transaction without that consideration being the value the contract accepts.

3 min read·$141.7K traded

CA-28 House Election Winner

CA-28 is a district-level seat question. National popular-vote strength is informative only insofar as it reaches this electorate, and the contract’s party attribution can matter when a candidate lacks a conventional ballot label.

3 min read·$141.4K traded

New songs in 2026: primary credit is the detail to check

An artist can appear on a track without satisfying this contract. The rules distinguish a new song released under a primary artist credit from a feature, a remix or a new version of existing material.

3 min read·$141.3K traded

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