POLITICS / THE OUTLOOK

Politics.
Power, in perspective.

Elections turn on more than the latest poll. Leadership contests, legislation and court decisions each have their own rules, deadlines and incentives. Explore the political events attracting trading activity, with the evidence and assumptions behind each market made clear.

Oct 4, 2026/THE DAILY OUTLOOK

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191 stories

VA-06 House Election Winner

VA-06 is a district-level seat question. National popular-vote strength is informative only insofar as it reaches this electorate, and the contract’s party attribution can matter when a candidate lacks a conventional ballot label.

3 min read·$119.4K traded

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s next cabinet chair: formal appointment controls

A negotiated candidate and a completed appointment are separate stages. The institutional record matters more than a name circulating in coalition discussions.

2 min read·$119K traded

Johannesburg’s next mayor: the council vote is the key step

A municipal campaign and the council’s choice of mayor are connected but different events. The rule makes the council outcome decisive.

2 min read·$118.8K traded

FL-01 House Election Winner

FL-01 is a district-level seat question. National popular-vote strength is informative only insofar as it reaches this electorate, and the contract’s party attribution can matter when a candidate lacks a conventional ballot label.

3 min read·$118K traded

MS-01 House Election Winner

MS-01 is a district-level seat question. National popular-vote strength is informative only insofar as it reaches this electorate, and the contract’s party attribution can matter when a candidate lacks a conventional ballot label.

3 min read·$117.7K traded

Spain’s snap-election market measures the formal call

Calls for an election and an election officially called are different events. The contract does not require the voting day itself to fall before the selected deadline.

2 min read·$116.7K traded

Xi–Takaichi meeting market: a handshake can meet the threshold

The contract’s definition is broader than a formal bilateral summit but narrower than simple coattendance. That gap can make short encounters decisive.

2 min read·$116.6K traded

Idaho Senate Election Winner

Idaho Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.

3 min read·$114.8K traded

Xi divorce market: a rumor is not a qualifying announcement

The existence of a betting contract does not establish a private relationship problem. The only responsible inference from a quote is that traders have priced a conditional question.

2 min read·$113.2K traded

Romanian dissolution market: both chambers are named in the rule

A government falling, a prime minister resigning and Parliament being dissolved are different institutional events. The contract asks specifically about the last of these.

2 min read·$112.6K traded

Somaliland’s election market separates no vote from delayed results

An election delay and a counting delay are different outcomes. The contract gives them different branches, so a generic claim that the result is late is insufficient.

2 min read·$112.1K traded

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Iowa’s statewide ballot contains separate governor and Senate choices. A split-ticket possibility should be evaluated separately from a single national-party narrative.

3 min read·$111.6K traded

Showing 169–180 of 191 stories

Politics.Power, in perspective.