Will Trump be impeached by...?
The conditions, incentives and evidence that could shape the answer.The question behind the headline
Impeachment of Donald Trump is a House action, while conviction and removal are separate Senate questions. Combining those stages can make a forecast look much stronger or weaker than the contract actually requires.
At the October 4, 2026 market snapshot, December 31, 2027 carried a 60.5% Yes price. Other open contracts included June 30, 2027 at 36%; December 31, 2026 at 1.8%. [1]
The condition that changes the answer
The House must approve at least one article of impeachment by simple majority. A Senate trial, conviction and removal are unnecessary. [1]
The selected contract runs through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [1]
Evidence for and against the leading outcome
A House majority willing to pass a specific impeachment article supports Yes regardless of the expected Senate result.
An inquiry, proposed articles or a committee vote can stop short of passage by the full House.
The next useful checks are full House roll-call result; article passage rather than an investigation; deadline and any office-vacancy clause. The linked primary references make the process and named data source inspectable. [2][3]
A closer look at the market
These child contracts can overlap: different dates, thresholds or people do not necessarily describe mutually exclusive alternatives. Their Yes prices should not be added into a single winner probability, and the highest Yes price is not automatically the most informative question.
The event had approximately $1,039,488 in total traded volume at observation. That is a record of turnover across this event, not a count of distinct people, a search-volume estimate or proof that every child contract is easy to trade. The analytical quote is fixed to the timestamp shown here; later live prices can differ. [1]
The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story.
WEIGH BOTH SIDES
What would change the outlook?
December 31, 2027 — Yes
Quoted market evidence: Oct 4, 2026, 09:57 UTC. The live market panel may show a newer observation.
A House majority willing to pass a specific impeachment article supports Yes regardless of the expected Senate result.
An inquiry, proposed articles or a committee vote can stop short of passage by the full House.
The next signals to watch
- Full House roll-call result
- Article passage rather than an investigation
- Deadline and any office-vacancy clause
The analysis starts from 60.5% for the Yes side of “December 31, 2027”. A view merely agreeing that this is plausible does not show that the price understates it. The probability, rule and remaining time all have to be compared. [1]
The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story.
A FEW GOOD QUESTIONS
What else should you know?
What exactly would settle this market?
The House must approve at least one article of impeachment by simple majority. A Senate trial, conviction and removal are unnecessary. [1]
What is the deadline, and can settlement come later?
The selected contract runs through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [1]
Does the quoted probability show an advantage?
No. 60.5% is the observed Yes price for “December 31, 2027”, not a verified probability from independent research. A useful assessment needs evidence that changes the expected chance under the exact rules, plus the actual price available at the time. [1]
CHECK THE EVIDENCE
Sources & further reading
- Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules ↗polymarket.com
- U.S. Senate — official institutional record ↗senate.gov
- U.S. House — legislative process ↗house.gov
Published . AI-assisted, source-linked analysis. We distinguish evidence from interpretation; this article does not establish a trading edge. How we work →
