Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?
The conditions, incentives and evidence that could shape the answer.The condition behind the headline
There are two clocks: the announcement deadline and the latest permissible election year. A timetable can satisfy one while failing the other.
A date for the next presidential election must be announced within the selected window, and the election must be scheduled before 2030. [2]
What the market snapshot can tell you
At the October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC retrieval, the selected Yes contract—“Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?”—was quoted at 11.5%. The event had $636,206 in cumulative volume. These are a dated price snapshot and event-wide turnover, respectively. [1][2]
The quoted Yes probability describes this specific contract at retrieval time; it is not an official determination that the condition occurred. [1][2] The API reported event-level liquidity of $16,063 at retrieval. That aggregate does not establish the executable depth or spread of this individual position. [1]
The evidence that could change the reading
A general commitment to hold elections or a date in 2030 or later does not meet the written qualification.
The useful checks are an official date-specific announcement; the announcement date. Those checks connect the public story to the settlement condition instead of treating attention as confirmation. [2]
The deadline and the interpretation trap
The selected child requires an announcement by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET, scheduling an election before 2030. [2]
Voting can occur after the market deadline, provided it is scheduled before 2030. That detail narrows the question being priced and is worth checking before comparing this contract with a broader political prediction. [2]
WEIGH BOTH SIDES
What would change the outlook?
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? — Yes at 11.5% in the dated snapshot. [2]
Quoted market evidence: Oct 4, 2026, 09:57 UTC. The live market panel may show a newer observation.
The selected Yes case requires evidence satisfying this exact test: A date for the next presidential election must be announced within the selected window, and the election must be scheduled before 2030. [2]
A general commitment to hold elections or a date in 2030 or later does not meet the written qualification.
The next signals to watch
- An official date-specific announcement
- The announcement date
- The year of the scheduled election
The 11.5% Yes quote already expresses the market’s dated assessment of this particular condition. The quoted Yes probability describes this specific contract at retrieval time; it is not an official determination that the condition occurred. [1][2]
There are two clocks: the announcement deadline and the latest permissible election year. A timetable can satisfy one while failing the other. The selected child requires an announcement by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET, scheduling an election before 2030. [2]
A FEW GOOD QUESTIONS
What else should you know?
What does this Polymarket contract actually measure?
A date for the next presidential election must be announced within the selected window, and the election must be scheduled before 2030. [2]
What deadline and exceptions matter?
The selected child requires an announcement by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET, scheduling an election before 2030. Voting can occur after the market deadline, provided it is scheduled before 2030. [2]
CHECK THE EVIDENCE
Sources & further reading
- Polymarket event and market data ↗polymarket.com
- Selected contract: Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? ↗polymarket.com
- Polymarket: how resolution follows contract rules ↗help.polymarket.com
Published . AI-assisted, source-linked analysis. We distinguish evidence from interpretation; this article does not establish a trading edge. How we work →
