Iran coup attempt by December 31: the evidence and conditions to watch

What this event actually asks

The useful question is precise: Iran coup attempt by December 31? In the API observation at 09:57 UTC on 2026-10-04, the selected contract’s first listed outcome was priced at 9.5%. The parent event had recorded $2,145,473 in cumulative volume. This is turnover across the event, not a count of independent forecasters or proof that this outcome is correctly priced. ^[1][2]

The Yes condition is that there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at least once during the interval from market creation to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. ^[2]

A coup attempt is not the same as a protest or a completed overthrow

The rule concerns a coordinated effort by state actors, such as military or security factions, to seize power unlawfully. General unrest or revolutionary action by non-state forces alone is excluded. ^[2]

A government’s claim that it foiled a plot needs the corroboration specified by the rule. An attempt can fail while still qualifying, so a forecast of leadership survival is not automatically the opposite side of this contract.

Our interpretation is that evidence of coordinated action, the actors involved and the intended seizure of power should be assessed separately. Market prices and viral rumors do not establish that a plot exists.

Which evidence would change the assessment?

An authenticated official act or independently corroborated transfer of the particular authority named in the contract would strengthen the positive case.

A temporary absence, an announced future departure or a change in a different office may not meet the rule. Where de facto power matters, a formal title can also be an incomplete guide.

A government’s claim to have foiled a plot is not automatically equivalent to a qualifying coup attempt. ^[2]

The next useful checkpoint

Written-rule date: December 31, 2026; 11:59 PM (ET). The selected contract and any reporting grace period govern settlement. ^[2]

Our reading is conditional: compare the next primary record with the exact threshold above, then revisit the case if the evidence contradicts it. A high quoted chance does not establish certainty; a low quote does not make the event impossible. The value of the article is a clearer test of the claim, not an asserted trading advantage.