Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 2: the evidence and conditions to watch

What this event actually asks

The useful question is precise: Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 2? In the API observation at 09:57 UTC on 2026-10-04, the selected contract’s first listed outcome was priced at 99.95%. The parent event had recorded $110,242 in cumulative volume. This is turnover across the event, not a count of independent forecasters or proof that this outcome is correctly priced. ^[1][2]

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Oct '26. ^[2]

The API still marks this event open for orders even though its scheduled end date has passed. This is a pending-resolution question, not a new future window. Assess evidence from the original interval and the rules for later confirmation. ^[1][2]

The recorded daily maximum is the settlement variable

The Hong Kong Observatory provides daily extracts alongside monthly summaries and other climate series. Selecting the correct observation is essential: the rule here names the absolute daily maximum, not a forecast or a different station’s peak. ^[3]

This observation date has already passed. The remaining question is which finalized value the rule recognizes and whether it has been published within the allowed interval. A forecast model’s best estimate cannot override that recorded value.

Which evidence would change the assessment?

The designated daily extract showing a value inside the selected range would support that range’s outcome.

A nearby station, rounded news report or later revision excluded by the rule may point to a different number without changing settlement.

The next useful checkpoint

Written-rule date: October 2 (ET). The selected contract and any reporting grace period govern settlement. ^[2]

Our reading is conditional: compare the next primary record with the exact threshold above, then revisit the case if the evidence contradicts it. A high quoted chance does not establish certainty; a low quote does not make the event impossible. The value of the article is a clearer test of the claim, not an asserted trading advantage.