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Inside Politics

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Who could win, what governments may do, and the rules that shape both.

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Leaders & governmentsClear filter ×

Meloni’s exit market can resolve before the handover

The key evidence is a definitive departure rather than the severity of political pressure. That distinction can make the wording of one official statement decisive.

2 min read·$171.6K traded

Akhannouch’s departure market: a near-certain quote still needs evidence

A price close to one is still a quoted contract value, not an official notice. The useful task is to identify the document or event that meets the written rule.

2 min read·$171.4K traded

Vermont Governor Election Winner

Vermont Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.

3 min read·$165.6K traded

Poilievre’s leadership contract: a committed exit is the trigger

A leadership debate and a confirmed departure are different stages. The contract’s announcement clause makes a definitive party statement more useful than speculation about internal dissatisfaction.

2 min read·$159.1K traded

Trump approval lows: one finalized trend reading can settle a threshold

A single poll and the specified finalized aggregate are different measurements. This market tracks the minimum reached, so a later recovery does not erase an earlier qualifying reading.

2 min read·$156.9K traded

Georgia Governor Election Winner

A required runoff can extend the decision beyond the first election night. The forecast needs a path through any qualifying second vote, not merely a first-round lead.

3 min read·$147.1K traded

Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner

A first-round lead and an eventual election victory are different achievements. The final-winner question must account for how support combines if a runoff is needed.

3 min read·$143.3K traded

New Mexico renaming market: federal usage is enough under these rules

This is a narrower federal-directive question than its headline suggests. The action could qualify even while the state’s own legal identity remains unchanged.

2 min read·$140.1K traded

New York Governor Election Winner

New York Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.

3 min read·$137.1K traded

Prabowo’s exit market: the selected horizon extends into 2027

Different deadlines represent different periods of exposure to leadership change. They should not be compared as if they ask an identical question.

2 min read·$136K traded

Nigeria’s presidential market: the complete election determines the winner

A pre-election price bundles candidate strength, the final contest and the official result. None of those stages can be replaced by a single campaign narrative.

2 min read·$128.6K traded

First cabinet departure: the announcement order can decide the market

This is an ordering problem as well as an officeholding problem. A reshuffle can generate several headlines while no qualifying departure, or a different first departure, occurs.

2 min read·$128.1K traded

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