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Who could win, what governments may do, and the rules that shape both.

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191 stories

Somaliland recognition: diplomatic engagement is a lower threshold

A visit, office opening or supportive statement can matter politically without satisfying this particular sovereignty test.

2 min read·$181.9K traded

Turkey’s early-election market settles on the formal announcement

The contract separates calls for an election from an official act creating one. Once the required announcement occurs on time, a later postponement or cancellation does not erase it under these rules.

2 min read·$173.4K traded

Comey prison-sentence market: distinguish charges from punishment

The market’s existence establishes no guilt and does not itself confirm any current case status. Its settlement condition concerns a specific judicial outcome.

2 min read·$173.2K traded

Which bills become law: chip-security language must survive enactment

A bill’s title or committee progress cannot establish that its operative provisions will survive into law. The important comparison is between the qualifying text and the final enacted text.

2 min read·$172K traded

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Choosing the next majority leader has two stages: a party must control the Senate, and that party must select its leader. A candidate can win an internal leadership contest yet still fail this majority-leader contract if the party loses control.

3 min read·$171.9K traded

Meloni’s exit market can resolve before the handover

The key evidence is a definitive departure rather than the severity of political pressure. That distinction can make the wording of one official statement decisive.

2 min read·$171.6K traded

Akhannouch’s departure market: a near-certain quote still needs evidence

A price close to one is still a quoted contract value, not an official notice. The useful task is to identify the document or event that meets the written rule.

2 min read·$171.4K traded

Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?

Impeachment of Pete Hegseth is a House action, while conviction and removal are separate Senate questions. Combining those stages can make a forecast look much stronger or weaker than the contract actually requires.

3 min read·$171K traded

São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place

This contract rewards first place in a specified round, not the eventual presidency or merely winning a seat. A stronger-than-expected showing can even defeat a second- or third-place selection by moving it up the ranking.

3 min read·$170.2K traded

Vermont Governor Election Winner

Vermont Governor is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.

3 min read·$165.7K traded

Florida Senate Election Winner

Florida Senate is a separate electoral decision, so a national party forecast cannot substitute for the actual field. The useful question is whether the leading option’s apparent advantage survives the local ballot, turnout and counting rules.

3 min read·$161.3K traded

Guinea-Bissau’s parliamentary market: an old schedule needs fresh evidence

The referenced November 2025 election date is past. Remaining market availability does not make that date upcoming or establish whether a definitive result exists.

2 min read·$160.7K traded

Showing 133–144 of 191 stories

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