# Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027? Impeachment of Donald Trump is a House action, while conviction and removal are separate Senate questions. Combining those stages can make a forecast look much stronger or weaker than the contract actually requires. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026 Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: Politics Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z ## Quick answer Impeachment of Donald Trump is a House action, while conviction and removal are separate Senate questions. The leading open contract, “December 31, 2027”, was priced at 60.5% for Yes in the October 4 snapshot. The House must approve at least one article of impeachment by simple majority. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) ## Key takeaways - The House must approve at least one article of impeachment by simple majority. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) - Impeachment of Donald Trump is a House action, while conviction and removal are separate Senate questions. - The selected contract runs through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) ## The question behind the headline Impeachment of Donald Trump is a House action, while conviction and removal are separate Senate questions. Combining those stages can make a forecast look much stronger or weaker than the contract actually requires. At the October 4, 2026 market snapshot, December 31, 2027 carried a 60.5% Yes price. Other open contracts included June 30, 2027 at 36%; December 31, 2026 at 1.8%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) ## The condition that changes the answer The House must approve at least one article of impeachment by simple majority. A Senate trial, conviction and removal are unnecessary. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) The selected contract runs through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) ## Evidence for and against the leading outcome A House majority willing to pass a specific impeachment article supports Yes regardless of the expected Senate result. An inquiry, proposed articles or a committee vote can stop short of passage by the full House. The next useful checks are full House roll-call result; article passage rather than an investigation; deadline and any office-vacancy clause. The linked primary references make the process and named data source inspectable. [2](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/impeachment.htm)[3](https://www.house.gov/the-house-explained/the-legislative-process) ## A closer look at the market These child contracts can overlap: different dates, thresholds or people do not necessarily describe mutually exclusive alternatives. Their Yes prices should not be added into a single winner probability, and the highest Yes price is not automatically the most informative question. The event had approximately $1,039,488 in total traded volume at observation. That is a record of turnover across this event, not a count of distinct people, a search-volume estimate or proof that every child contract is easy to trade. The analytical quote is fixed to the timestamp shown here; later live prices can differ. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story. ## A fact worth knowing The Senate’s conviction vote is not required for this event. Source: [Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus December 31, 2027 — Yes ### Supporting case A House majority willing to pass a specific impeachment article supports Yes regardless of the expected Senate result. ### Challenging case An inquiry, proposed articles or a committee vote can stop short of passage by the full House. ### What to watch - Full House roll-call result - Article passage rather than an investigation - Deadline and any office-vacancy clause ### What may already be priced in The analysis starts from 60.5% for the Yes side of “December 31, 2027”. A view merely agreeing that this is plausible does not show that the price understates it. The probability, rule and remaining time all have to be compared. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) ### Assessment The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story. ## How the market resolves The House must approve at least one article of impeachment by simple majority. A Senate trial, conviction and removal are unnecessary. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) ## Timing and deadline The selected contract runs through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) ## Questions and answers ### What exactly would settle this market? The House must approve at least one article of impeachment by simple majority. A Senate trial, conviction and removal are unnecessary. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) ### What is the deadline, and can settlement come later? The selected contract runs through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) ### Does the quoted probability show an advantage? No. 60.5% is the observed Yes price for “December 31, 2027”, not a verified probability from independent research. A useful assessment needs evidence that changes the expected chance under the exact rules, plus the actual price available at the time. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) ## Related market contracts - [December 31, 2027](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2027) - [June 30, 2027](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026/will-trump-be-impeached-by-june-30-2027) - [December 31, 2026](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026) 2. [U.S. Senate — official institutional record](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/impeachment.htm) 3. [U.S. House — legislative process](https://www.house.gov/the-house-explained/the-legislative-process) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)