# Who will Trump pardon before 2027? The a listed individual clemency question includes more than a full pardon. A shorter sentence or temporary reprieve can qualify under these rules even though those acts have different legal effects. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027 Publisher: The Outlook By: [The Outlook editorial desk](https://www.homeincomelab.com/editorial) Category: Politics Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z ## Quick answer The a listed individual clemency question includes more than a full pardon. The leading open contract, “Donald Brodie”, was priced at 44.5% for Yes in the October 4 snapshot. A presidential pardon, commutation or reprieve from Donald Trump qualifies. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) ## Key takeaways - A presidential pardon, commutation or reprieve from Donald Trump qualifies. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) - The a listed individual clemency question includes more than a full pardon. - The Maxwell window begins July 23, 2025; the listed-individual event begins November 17, 2025. Both end December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) ## The question behind the headline The a listed individual clemency question includes more than a full pardon. A shorter sentence or temporary reprieve can qualify under these rules even though those acts have different legal effects. At the October 4, 2026 market snapshot, Donald Brodie carried a 44.5% Yes price. Other open contracts included Stefan Brodie at 18.5%; Keonne Rodriguez at 14%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) ## The condition that changes the answer A presidential pardon, commutation or reprieve from Donald Trump qualifies. Use official government information or credible consensus; lobbying, a request or discussion alone is insufficient. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) The Maxwell window begins July 23, 2025; the listed-individual event begins November 17, 2025. Both end December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) ## Evidence for and against the leading outcome An authentic presidential clemency grant for the selected person supports Yes. Political discussion, a pending application or a statement of sympathy does not itself grant clemency. The next useful checks are official clemency instrument; correct person and type of relief; grant within the operative period. The linked primary references make the process and named data source inspectable. [2](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/frequently-asked-questions)[3](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients) ## A closer look at the market These child contracts can overlap: different dates, thresholds or people do not necessarily describe mutually exclusive alternatives. Their Yes prices should not be added into a single winner probability, and the highest Yes price is not automatically the most informative question. The event had approximately $499,770 in total traded volume at observation. That is a record of turnover across this event, not a count of distinct people, a search-volume estimate or proof that every child contract is easy to trade. The analytical quote is fixed to the timestamp shown here; later live prices can differ. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story. ## A fact worth knowing Commutation and reprieve are expressly included alongside a pardon. Source: [Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus Donald Brodie — Yes ### Supporting case An authentic presidential clemency grant for the selected person supports Yes. ### Challenging case Political discussion, a pending application or a statement of sympathy does not itself grant clemency. ### What to watch - Official clemency instrument - Correct person and type of relief - Grant within the operative period ### What may already be priced in The analysis starts from 44.5% for the Yes side of “Donald Brodie”. A view merely agreeing that this is plausible does not show that the price understates it. The probability, rule and remaining time all have to be compared. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) ### Assessment The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story. ## How the market resolves A presidential pardon, commutation or reprieve from Donald Trump qualifies. Use official government information or credible consensus; lobbying, a request or discussion alone is insufficient. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) ## Timing and deadline The Maxwell window begins July 23, 2025; the listed-individual event begins November 17, 2025. Both end December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) ## Questions and answers ### What exactly would settle this market? A presidential pardon, commutation or reprieve from Donald Trump qualifies. Use official government information or credible consensus; lobbying, a request or discussion alone is insufficient. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) ### What is the deadline, and can settlement come later? The Maxwell window begins July 23, 2025; the listed-individual event begins November 17, 2025. Both end December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) ### Does the quoted probability show an advantage? No. 44.5% is the observed Yes price for “Donald Brodie”, not a verified probability from independent research. A useful assessment needs evidence that changes the expected chance under the exact rules, plus the actual price available at the time. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) ## Related market contracts - [Donald Brodie](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027/will-trump-pardon-donald-brodie-before-2027) - [Stefan Brodie](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027/will-trump-pardon-stefan-brodie-before-2027) - [Keonne Rodriguez](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027/will-trump-pardon-keonne-rodriguez-before-2027) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027) 2. [justice.gov — official source](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/frequently-asked-questions) 3. [justice.gov — official source](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)