# Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act: the official step that decides the outcome A senator can support advancing a bill while opposing final passage. The first qualifying final-passage vote, including absence or nonparticipation, is the relevant evidence. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658 Publisher: The Outlook By: [The Outlook editorial desk](https://www.homeincomelab.com/editorial) Category: Crypto Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T10:28:12.452998Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T10:28:12.452998Z ## Quick answer “Raphael Warnock” was quoted at 12.35% on October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. A senator can support advancing a bill while opposing final passage. The linked rules decide the result; this dated quote is not confirmation. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658) ## Key takeaways - Raphael Warnock: 12.35% in the dated research snapshot. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658) - A senator can support advancing a bill while opposing final passage. The first qualifying final-passage vote, including absence or nonparticipation, is the relevant evidence. - Judge the documented institutional act rather than the volume of public discussion around it. ## Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act: the question behind the price A senator can support advancing a bill while opposing final passage. The first qualifying final-passage vote, including absence or nonparticipation, is the relevant evidence. In the snapshot checked October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC, the focus outcome, Raphael Warnock, was quoted at 12.35%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658) Final-passage votes differ from procedural votes. [3](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/votes_new.htm) Our interpretation is that the nearest institutional bottleneck matters more than a general narrative about political momentum. A proposal can receive attention without securing a final vote; a passed measure may still require another chamber, a signature or implementation. Count only the steps that this question actually requires. ## Political support and a completed act differ Uses the named senator’s Yea on the first full-Senate final-passage vote on qualifying crypto-market-structure legislation before January 1, 2027. Committee, cloture and amendment votes do not count. No qualifying vote or no initial Yea means No; later vote corrections are ignored. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-raphael-warnock-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926666) The practical implication for Raphael Warnock is to distinguish necessary conditions from supporting clues. A plausible explanation can help identify what to investigate, but the outcome still turns on evidence satisfying the specified test. Judge the documented institutional act rather than the volume of public discussion around it. ## What the other prices and the trading record reveal The comparison with Thom Tillis, quoted at 11.5%, gives a 0.85-percentage-point spread against Raphael Warnock. That is a difference in quoted expectations, not a measured performance margin. Before treating the outcomes as a complete probability distribution, check whether they are mutually exclusive and whether a None, Other or fallback outcome is included. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658) This event recorded $215,729 in cumulative turnover across its life. The captured record contains 15 eligible open constituent contracts. Those are the scope of this snapshot, not a count of independent forecasters. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658) ## The next evidence that would change the assessment For this event, watch the official text and institutional record; the exact vote, signature, publication or implementation required; the deadline and treatment of partial measures or later revisions. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-raphael-warnock-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926666) The next meaningful update is evidence about the required milestone or measurement. A changed quote by itself does not identify what happened or why. The required institution taking the specified formal action within the window would support the outcome. A procedural step, narrower measure or delay beyond the deadline could defeat the contract even if the policy remains politically viable. ## A fact worth knowing The open conditions in this snapshot span 2% to 12.35%. That 10.35-percentage-point range compares different contract conditions; it is not a confidence interval for one prediction. Source: [Polymarket: Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — observed event and constituent prices](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus Will Raphael Warnock vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? ### Supporting case The required institution taking the specified formal action within the window would support the outcome. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-raphael-warnock-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926666) ### Challenging case A procedural step, narrower measure or delay beyond the deadline could defeat the contract even if the policy remains politically viable. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-raphael-warnock-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926666) ### What to watch - The official text and institutional record. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-raphael-warnock-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926666) - The exact vote, signature, publication or implementation required. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-raphael-warnock-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926666) - The deadline and treatment of partial measures or later revisions. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-raphael-warnock-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926666) ### What may already be priced in The observed 12.35% quote is the captured market expectation for Raphael Warnock. Publicly known conditions alone do not establish that this price is too high or too low. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658) ### Assessment Judge the documented institutional act rather than the volume of public discussion around it. ## How the market resolves Uses the named senator’s Yea on the first full-Senate final-passage vote on qualifying crypto-market-structure legislation before January 1, 2027. Committee, cloture and amendment votes do not count. No qualifying vote or no initial Yea means No; later vote corrections are ignored. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-raphael-warnock-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926666) ## Timing and deadline The focus contract uses January 1, 2027, using the time and timezone in the written rules. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-raphael-warnock-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926666) ## Questions and answers ### Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? The selected condition, Raphael Warnock, was priced at 12.35% when checked October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. A senator can support advancing a bill while opposing final passage. The first qualifying final-passage vote, including absence or nonparticipation, is the relevant evidence. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658) ### What evidence would be decisive for this particular outcome? The key observations are the official text and institutional record; the exact vote, signature, publication or implementation required; the deadline and treatment of partial measures or later revisions. The full linked contract governs exceptions. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-raphael-warnock-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926666) ### Does this market price prove the event will happen? No. 12.35% describes the quoted focus condition in a dated snapshot. It is not a verified forecast, an official result or evidence that all participants independently evaluated the same information. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658) ## Related market contracts - [Will Raphael Warnock vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-raphael-warnock-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926666) - [Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-thom-tillis-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926671) - [Will Jacky Rosen vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-jacky-rosen-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926672) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket: Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — observed event and constituent prices](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658) 2. [Polymarket: Will Raphael Warnock vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? — exact resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/will-raphael-warnock-vote-yea-on-the-clarity-act-20260729190926666) 3. [U.S. Senate: Roll-call votes](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/votes_new.htm) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)