# The next UFC pound-for-pound number one: a first-successor question What must happen for the first successor to Islam Makhachev at number one in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings, how the leading prices compare, and which official evidence would change the picture. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026 Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: Sports Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T10:18:29.452899Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T10:18:29.452899Z ## Quick answer The market concerns the first successor to Islam Makhachev at number one in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings. Islam/None in 2026 was quoted at 93.6%. [4](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026) A leading price describes expectations; it does not establish an official winner or qualifying announcement. The decisive evidence is the official outcome within the written window, including any exception that changes settlement. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) ## Key takeaways - The outcome being tested is the first successor to Islam Makhachev at number one in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) - This asks who takes over first. A later return to number one would not erase an earlier qualifying successor. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) - The relevant window is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET; if there is no successor, the Islam/No Next #1 in 2026 outcome applies. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) ## What the leading quote actually says In the October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC snapshot, this event recorded $599,324 in cumulative trading across its contracts. Islam/None in 2026 was quoted at 93.6%, compared with Khamzat Chimaev at 3.35%; Petr Yan at 1.4%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026)[4](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026) The leading two prices are separated by 90.25 percentage points in this snapshot. That is a comparison of quotes, not a measured performance gap. [4](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026) ## The route that must be completed The official UFC list currently places Islam Makhachev first. [3](https://www.ufc.com/rankings) A ranking and a divisional belt answer different questions. The contract requires the specified official ranking record, not a reader’s preferred pound-for-pound list. An interpretation should distinguish a fighter’s bout result from the subsequent published ranking update. For the selected outcome, the supporting interpretation requires no other fighter officially replacing Islam Makhachev at number one before the cutoff. The challenge is an official ranking update naming a different fighter first, even if Makhachev later retakes the position. These are conditions to investigate, not newly established facts about the named participant. ## Timing and exceptions can change the answer The written condition is the first successor to Islam Makhachev at number one in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings. This asks who takes over first. A later return to number one would not erase an earlier qualifying successor. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) The relevant contractual window is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET; if there is no successor, the Islam/No Next #1 in 2026 outcome applies. The descriptive deadline must take precedence over treating an API end-date field as the sporting schedule. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) ## The evidence worth following next Official UFC updates to the named ranking or championship status. Then check confirmed bout dates and the designation attached to any title bout. These observations are more informative than repeating the current market order without asking which hurdle has changed. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678)[3](https://www.ufc.com/rankings) The snapshot contains 15 open contracts with reported trading activity or liquidity. The selected contract reported $4,193 in turnover and $1,010 in liquidity. That separates the scale of the parent event from the immediate market being examined; neither measure proves the forecast is correct. [4](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026) ## A fact worth knowing The first qualifying successor can differ from whoever finishes the year at number one. Source: [Polymarket contract: Will Islam Makhachev remain #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings?](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus Will Islam Makhachev remain #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings ### Supporting case The outcome becomes better supported with no other fighter officially replacing Islam Makhachev at number one before the cutoff. Verify the decisive event rather than substituting the current market ranking. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) ### Challenging case The counter-case is an official ranking update naming a different fighter first, even if Makhachev later retakes the position. The specific timing condition can defeat a superficially similar outcome. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) ### What to watch - Official UFC updates to the named ranking or championship status. [3](https://www.ufc.com/rankings) - Confirmed bout dates and the designation attached to any title bout. [3](https://www.ufc.com/rankings) - The official record at the exact contract check or cutoff. [3](https://www.ufc.com/rankings) ### What may already be priced in Islam/None in 2026 was quoted at 93.6%, compared with Khamzat Chimaev at 3.35%; Petr Yan at 1.4%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026)[4](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026) These quotes were observed October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. They are market prices, not independently calculated forecasts; this analysis does not establish that any outcome is mispriced. ### Assessment Focus on the remaining conditions for the first successor to Islam Makhachev at number one in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings. A useful update explains which condition changed, rather than treating a familiar name or a busy market as the answer. ## How the market resolves The market resolves according to the first successor to Islam Makhachev at number one in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings. This asks who takes over first. A later return to number one would not erase an earlier qualifying successor. Official UFC information controls. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) ## Timing and deadline December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET; if there is no successor, the Islam/No Next #1 in 2026 outcome applies. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) ## Questions and answers ### What exactly determines this market’s outcome? The test is the first successor to Islam Makhachev at number one in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings. This asks who takes over first. A later return to number one would not erase an earlier qualifying successor. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) ### When does the qualifying window end? December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET; if there is no successor, the Islam/No Next #1 in 2026 outcome applies. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) ### How should I interpret the leading percentage? It is the quoted price-implied chance of the selected contract, not an official result or a proportion of votes. The figures are fixed to this article’s dated observation. [4](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026) ## Related market contracts - [Islam/None in 2026](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) - [Khamzat Chimaev](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-khamzat-chimaev-be-the-next-fighter-to-be-ranked-first-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-in-2026-646) - [Petr Yan](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-petr-yan-be-the-next-fighter-to-be-ranked-first-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-in-2026-284) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket: Who will be the next UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 in 2026? — event and total volume](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026) 2. [Polymarket contract: Will Islam Makhachev remain #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings?](https://polymarket.com/event/which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026/will-islam-makhachev-remain-1-in-the-ufc-pound-for-pound-rankings-678) 3. [UFC: official rankings and champion listings](https://www.ufc.com/rankings) 4. [Polymarket: structured event and contract record — observed October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=which-fighter-will-be-the-next-ufc-pound-for-pound-1-in-2026) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. 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