# What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? The title sounds like a December 31 snapshot, but the operative rule normally locks in the December meeting decision. That difference matters if policy changes again late in the month. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026 Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: Economy Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z ## Quick answer The title sounds like a December 31 snapshot, but the operative rule normally locks in the December meeting decision. The leading open contract, “4.25%”, was priced at 48.05% for Yes in the October 4 snapshot. Use the target range upper bound after the December FOMC meeting, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points; exact midpoints round away from zero. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) ## Key takeaways - Use the target range upper bound after the December FOMC meeting, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points; exact midpoints round away from zero. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) - The title sounds like a December 31 snapshot, but the operative rule normally locks in the December meeting decision. - December 8–9, 2026 is the scheduled meeting. If no December decision arrives by December 31 at 11:59 p.m. ET, use the upper bound then. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) ## The question behind the headline The title sounds like a December 31 snapshot, but the operative rule normally locks in the December meeting decision. That difference matters if policy changes again late in the month. At the October 4, 2026 market snapshot, 4.25% carried a 48.05% Yes price. Other open contracts included 4.0% at 27.8%; ≥ 4.5% at 11.05%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) ## The condition that changes the answer Use the target range upper bound after the December FOMC meeting, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points; exact midpoints round away from zero. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) December 8–9, 2026 is the scheduled meeting. If no December decision arrives by December 31 at 11:59 p.m. ET, use the upper bound then. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) ## Evidence for and against the leading outcome The leading level needs the cumulative path from the present rate to land in that exact rounded bracket. Different sequences of hikes and cuts can end elsewhere; a correct view on October alone is insufficient. The next useful checks are upper bound entering December; december decision; any missing-statement fallback. The linked primary references make the process and named data source inspectable. [2](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)[3](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) ## A closer look at the market The leading listed option was 20.25 percentage points above the next quoted option. That difference measures market pricing, not a vote margin or a measured lead in real-world evidence. A leading price below 50% means the market can favor this option over each rival without treating it as more likely than all alternatives combined. The event had approximately $6,910,038 in total traded volume at observation. That is a record of turnover across this event, not a count of distinct people, a search-volume estimate or proof that every child contract is easy to trade. The analytical quote is fixed to the timestamp shown here; later live prices can differ. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) The useful conclusion is conditional: the leading option needs to satisfy the whole outcome definition, not just one favorable part of the story. ## A fact worth knowing An outcome can normally settle before the final calendar day of 2026. Source: [Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus 4.25% ### Supporting case The leading level needs the cumulative path from the present rate to land in that exact rounded bracket. ### Challenging case Different sequences of hikes and cuts can end elsewhere; a correct view on October alone is insufficient. ### What to watch - Upper bound entering December - December decision - Any missing-statement fallback ### What may already be priced in The analysis starts from 48.05% for the Yes side of “4.25%”. A view merely agreeing that this is plausible does not show that the price understates it. The probability, rule and remaining time all have to be compared. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) ### Assessment The useful conclusion is conditional: the leading option needs to satisfy the whole outcome definition, not just one favorable part of the story. ## How the market resolves Use the target range upper bound after the December FOMC meeting, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points; exact midpoints round away from zero. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) ## Timing and deadline December 8–9, 2026 is the scheduled meeting. If no December decision arrives by December 31 at 11:59 p.m. ET, use the upper bound then. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) ## Questions and answers ### What exactly would settle this market? Use the target range upper bound after the December FOMC meeting, rounded to the nearest 25 basis points; exact midpoints round away from zero. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) ### What is the deadline, and can settlement come later? December 8–9, 2026 is the scheduled meeting. If no December decision arrives by December 31 at 11:59 p.m. ET, use the upper bound then. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) ### Does the quoted probability show an advantage? No. 48.05% is the observed Yes price for “4.25%”, not a verified probability from independent research. A useful assessment needs evidence that changes the expected chance under the exact rules, plus the actual price available at the time. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) ## Related market contracts - [4.25%](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-funds-rate-be-4pt25-at-the-end-of-2026-984) - [4.0%](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-funds-rate-be-4pt0-at-the-end-of-2026-386) - [≥ 4.5%](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-funds-rate-be-4pt5-at-the-end-of-2026-139) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026) 2. [Federal Reserve — policy decisions and framework](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) 3. [Federal Reserve — policy decisions and framework](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)