# What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026? This WTI event follows ICE futures through Pyth, while another oil market may follow CME. A price claim without the venue, active contract and session can therefore answer the wrong question. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026 Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: Economy Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z ## Quick answer This WTI event follows ICE futures through Pyth, while another oil market may follow CME. The leading open contract, “↓ $90”, was priced at 94.7% for Yes in the October 4 snapshot. Use final Pyth one-minute highs or lows for active-month ICE WTI CLL during eligible October trading sessions, at or beyond each strike without rounding. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) ## Key takeaways - Use final Pyth one-minute highs or lows for active-month ICE WTI CLL during eligible October trading sessions, at or beyond each strike without rounding. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) - This WTI event follows ICE futures through Pyth, while another oil market may follow CME. - Only October 2026 trading sessions after market creation count. Overnight session boundaries and holiday hours follow ICE, not a simple midnight calendar. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) ## The question behind the headline This WTI event follows ICE futures through Pyth, while another oil market may follow CME. A price claim without the venue, active contract and session can therefore answer the wrong question. At the October 4, 2026 market snapshot, ↓ $90 carried a 94.7% Yes price. Other open contracts included ↑ $95 at 74.5%; ↓ $85 at 60%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) ## The condition that changes the answer Use final Pyth one-minute highs or lows for active-month ICE WTI CLL during eligible October trading sessions, at or beyond each strike without rounding. The contract rolls at the start of its third-to-last session. ICE daily data is an outage fallback. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) Only October 2026 trading sessions after market creation count. Overnight session boundaries and holiday hours follow ICE, not a simple midnight calendar. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) ## Evidence for and against the leading outcome A qualifying move in the named feed during the eligible session supports the corresponding threshold. A different venue’s print, a precreation move or an out-of-session quote can fail the contract despite a similar headline price. The next useful checks are pyth CLL one-minute data; ICE session calendar; active-month rollover and outage fallback. The linked primary references make the process and named data source inspectable. [2](https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures)[3](https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL) ## A closer look at the market These child contracts can overlap: different dates, thresholds or people do not necessarily describe mutually exclusive alternatives. Their Yes prices should not be added into a single winner probability, and the highest Yes price is not automatically the most informative question. The event had approximately $595,624 in total traded volume at observation. That is a record of turnover across this event, not a count of distinct people, a search-volume estimate or proof that every child contract is easy to trade. The analytical quote is fixed to the timestamp shown here; later live prices can differ. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story. ## A fact worth knowing An October trading session can begin on the prior calendar evening. Source: [Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus ↓ $90 — Yes ### Supporting case A qualifying move in the named feed during the eligible session supports the corresponding threshold. ### Challenging case A different venue’s print, a precreation move or an out-of-session quote can fail the contract despite a similar headline price. ### What to watch - Pyth CLL one-minute data - ICE session calendar - Active-month rollover and outage fallback ### What may already be priced in The analysis starts from 94.7% for the Yes side of “↓ $90”. A view merely agreeing that this is plausible does not show that the price understates it. The probability, rule and remaining time all have to be compared. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) ### Assessment The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story. ## How the market resolves Use final Pyth one-minute highs or lows for active-month ICE WTI CLL during eligible October trading sessions, at or beyond each strike without rounding. The contract rolls at the start of its third-to-last session. ICE daily data is an outage fallback. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) ## Timing and deadline Only October 2026 trading sessions after market creation count. Overnight session boundaries and holiday hours follow ICE, not a simple midnight calendar. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) ## Questions and answers ### What exactly would settle this market? Use final Pyth one-minute highs or lows for active-month ICE WTI CLL during eligible October trading sessions, at or beyond each strike without rounding. The contract rolls at the start of its third-to-last session. ICE daily data is an outage fallback. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) ### What is the deadline, and can settlement come later? Only October 2026 trading sessions after market creation count. Overnight session boundaries and holiday hours follow ICE, not a simple midnight calendar. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) ### Does the quoted probability show an advantage? No. 94.7% is the observed Yes price for “↓ $90”, not a verified probability from independent research. A useful assessment needs evidence that changes the expected chance under the exact rules, plus the actual price available at the time. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) ## Related market contracts - [↓ $90](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026/will-wti-dip-to-90-in-october-2026-from-october-2) - [↑ $95](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026/will-wti-reach-95-in-october-2026) - [↓ $85](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026/will-wti-dip-to-85-in-october-2026) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-october-2026) 2. [ice.com — official source](https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures) 3. [app.pyth.com — official source](https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)