# Predict.fun FDV valuation thresholds one day after launch: the launch hurdle behind the valuation odds This is a one-minute closing observation at noon Eastern, not a test of whether the asset ever visits the level that day. A price spike can therefore be irrelevant to the result. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: Crypto Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T10:28:12.452998Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T10:28:12.452998Z ## Quick answer “$500M” was quoted at 49.5% on October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. This is a one-minute closing observation at noon Eastern, not a test of whether the asset ever visits the level that day. The linked rules decide the result; this dated quote is not confirmation. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) ## Key takeaways - $500M: 49.5% in the dated research snapshot. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) - This is a one-minute closing observation at noon Eastern, not a test of whether the asset ever visits the level that day. A price spike can therefore be irrelevant to the result. - Separate the probability of launch from the conditional valuation after launch; a low combined price does not establish that the token itself will be cheap. ## Predict.fun FDV above which deadline one day after launch: the question behind the price This is a one-minute closing observation at noon Eastern, not a test of whether the asset ever visits the level that day. A price spike can therefore be irrelevant to the result. In the snapshot checked October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC, the focus outcome, $500M, was quoted at 49.5%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) FDV values the complete supply. [3](https://www.coingecko.com/en/glossary/fully-diluted-valuation) Our interpretation is that a high headline valuation can coexist with a small amount of freely available supply. The useful questions are how many units enter trading, who can sell them, and whether buyers support the price after initial distribution. A quoted valuation is not the same as cash raised or proceeds every holder could realize. Predict’s launch statement describes points earned through trading, orders and liquidity. That verifies a points program, while the market’s separate token-launch and valuation conditions still require their own evidence. [4](https://predict.fun/news/breaking-predict-goes-live) ## Valuation needs both a launch and a price Requires a qualifying publicly transferable, tradable token launch, then FDV strictly above the selected threshold at 4 p.m. US Eastern on the following calendar day. The most liquid available price source is used. No launch by the stated cutoff produces No. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch) The practical implication for $500M is to distinguish necessary conditions from supporting clues. A plausible explanation can help identify what to investigate, but the outcome still turns on evidence satisfying the specified test. Separate the probability of launch from the conditional valuation after launch; a low combined price does not establish that the token itself will be cheap. ## What the other prices and the trading record reveal Another open condition, $600M, is priced at 46%, a 3.50-percentage-point difference from $500M. Thresholds can be nested: satisfying a harder threshold can also satisfy an easier one. Their prices must therefore be interpreted as separate conditions, not vote shares that automatically sum to 100%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) This event recorded $6.65 million in cumulative turnover across its life. The captured record contains 11 eligible open constituent contracts. Those are the scope of this snapshot, not a count of independent forecasters. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) ## The next evidence that would change the assessment For this event, watch the exact Binance pair in the focus contract; the final close of the one-minute candle starting at noon ET; the strict threshold comparison using the source’s precision. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch) The next meaningful update is evidence about the required milestone or measurement. A changed quote by itself does not identify what happened or why. A qualifying launch plus a sustained observable price at the specified measurement time would support the threshold outcome. A delay can defeat the contract before valuation is considered; after launch, more available supply or weaker bids could leave the threshold unmet. ## A fact worth knowing The open conditions in this snapshot span 20.75% to 83.5%. That 62.75-percentage-point range compares different contract conditions; it is not a confidence interval for one prediction. Source: [Polymarket: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? — observed event and constituent prices](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? ### Supporting case A qualifying launch plus a sustained observable price at the specified measurement time would support the threshold outcome. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch) ### Challenging case A delay can defeat the contract before valuation is considered; after launch, more available supply or weaker bids could leave the threshold unmet. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch) ### What to watch - The exact Binance pair in the focus contract. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch) - The final close of the one-minute candle starting at noon ET. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch) - The strict threshold comparison using the source’s precision. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch) ### What may already be priced in The observed 49.5% quote is the captured market expectation for $500M. Publicly known conditions alone do not establish that this price is too high or too low. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) ### Assessment Separate the probability of launch from the conditional valuation after launch; a low combined price does not establish that the token itself will be cheap. ## How the market resolves Requires a qualifying publicly transferable, tradable token launch, then FDV strictly above the selected threshold at 4 p.m. US Eastern on the following calendar day. The most liquid available price source is used. No launch by the stated cutoff produces No. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch) ## Timing and deadline The focus contract uses December 31, 2027, at 11:59 p.m. US Eastern time. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch) ## Questions and answers ### Predict.fun FDV above which deadline one day after launch? The selected condition, $500M, was priced at 49.5% when checked October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. This is a one-minute closing observation at noon Eastern, not a test of whether the asset ever visits the level that day. A price spike can therefore be irrelevant to the result. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) ### What evidence would be decisive for this particular outcome? The key observations are the exact Binance pair in the focus contract; the final close of the one-minute candle starting at noon ET; the strict threshold comparison using the source’s precision. The full linked contract governs exceptions. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch) ### Does this market price prove the event will happen? No. 49.5% describes the quoted focus condition in a dated snapshot. It is not a verified forecast, an official result or evidence that all participants independently evaluated the same information. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) ## Related market contracts - [Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch) - [Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-600m-one-day-after-launch) - [Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-800m-one-day-after-launch) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? — observed event and constituent prices](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) 2. [Polymarket: Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? — exact resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch) 3. [CoinGecko: Fully Diluted Valuation](https://www.coingecko.com/en/glossary/fully-diluted-valuation) 4. [Predict: Platform launch, December 18, 2025](https://predict.fun/news/breaking-predict-goes-live) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)