# Prabowo’s exit market: the selected horizon extends into 2027 Different deadlines represent different periods of exposure to leadership change. They should not be compared as if they ask an identical question. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: Politics Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T10:22:53.910Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T10:22:53.910Z ## Quick answer The contract includes cessation of the presidency, a timely announced departure, and the specified effective-removal or permanent-prevention conditions. The selected Yes quote was 6.5% at October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ## Key takeaways - The contract includes cessation of the presidency, a timely announced departure, and the specified effective-removal or permanent-prevention conditions. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) - Political pressure or a report about instability can fall short of a qualifying change in officeholding. - The selected child runs through June 30, 2027, with Eastern Time specified in the rules. Other children have different horizons. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ## The condition behind the headline Different deadlines represent different periods of exposure to leadership change. They should not be compared as if they ask an identical question. The contract includes cessation of the presidency, a timely announced departure, and the specified effective-removal or permanent-prevention conditions. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ## What the market snapshot can tell you At the October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC retrieval, the selected Yes contract—“Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027?”—was quoted at 6.5%. The event had $135,969 in cumulative volume. These are a dated price snapshot and event-wide turnover, respectively. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) The event contains multiple separate contracts. The selected quote should not be treated as an exhaustive ranking of all outcomes, and each contract’s own terms remain relevant. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) The API reported event-level liquidity of $39,703 at retrieval. That aggregate does not establish the executable depth or spread of this individual position. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by) ## The evidence that could change the reading Political pressure or a report about instability can fall short of a qualifying change in officeholding. The useful checks are the selected child’s deadline; official information about the presidency. Those checks connect the public story to the settlement condition instead of treating attention as confirmation. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ## The deadline and the interpretation trap The selected child runs through June 30, 2027, with Eastern Time specified in the rules. Other children have different horizons. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) A qualifying announcement can count before the actual departure date. That detail narrows the question being priced and is worth checking before comparing this contract with a broader political prediction. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ## A fact worth knowing A qualifying announcement can count before the actual departure date. Source: [Polymarket contract resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027? — Yes at 6.5% in the dated snapshot. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ### Supporting case The selected Yes case requires evidence satisfying this exact test: The contract includes cessation of the presidency, a timely announced departure, and the specified effective-removal or permanent-prevention conditions. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ### Challenging case Political pressure or a report about instability can fall short of a qualifying change in officeholding. ### What to watch - The selected child’s deadline - Official information about the presidency - A definitive rather than speculative departure announcement ### What may already be priced in The 6.5% Yes quote already expresses the market’s dated assessment of this particular condition. The event contains multiple separate contracts. The selected quote should not be treated as an exhaustive ranking of all outcomes, and each contract’s own terms remain relevant. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ### Assessment Different deadlines represent different periods of exposure to leadership change. They should not be compared as if they ask an identical question. The selected child runs through June 30, 2027, with Eastern Time specified in the rules. Other children have different horizons. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ## How the market resolves The contract includes cessation of the presidency, a timely announced departure, and the specified effective-removal or permanent-prevention conditions. A qualifying announcement can count before the actual departure date. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ## Timing and deadline The selected child runs through June 30, 2027, with Eastern Time specified in the rules. Other children have different horizons. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ## Questions and answers ### What does this Polymarket contract actually measure? The contract includes cessation of the presidency, a timely announced departure, and the specified effective-removal or permanent-prevention conditions. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ### What deadline and exceptions matter? The selected child runs through June 30, 2027, with Eastern Time specified in the rules. Other children have different horizons. A qualifying announcement can count before the actual departure date. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ### Does the quoted probability confirm the event has happened? No. This is a dated trading quote, not an official result or independent confirmation of the underlying claim. Political pressure or a report about instability can fall short of a qualifying change in officeholding. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) ## Related market contracts - [Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027?](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) - [Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-december-31-2026) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket event and market data](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by) 2. [Selected contract: Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027?](https://polymarket.com/event/prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by/will-prabowo-subianto-cease-to-be-president-of-indonesia-by-june-30-2027-20260716191859847) 3. [Polymarket: how resolution follows contract rules](https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364518-how-are-prediction-markets-resolved) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)