# Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut: what an exam score says about AI progress The model’s first appearance on the official result site sets the observation clock. Public release, a separate score announcement and a result for another Claude family are different events. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231 Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: Technology Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T10:28:12.452998Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T10:28:12.452998Z ## Quick answer “45%+” was quoted at 94.4% on October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. The model’s first appearance on the official result site sets the observation clock. The linked rules decide the result; this dated quote is not confirmation. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231) ## Key takeaways - 45%+: 94.4% in the dated research snapshot. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231) - The model’s first appearance on the official result site sets the observation clock. Public release, a separate score announcement and a result for another Claude family are different events. - Treat the score as a reproducible test claim; avoid turning one number into a universal verdict about intelligence. ## Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut: the question behind the price The model’s first appearance on the official result site sets the observation clock. Public release, a separate score announcement and a result for another Claude family are different events. In the snapshot checked October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC, the focus outcome, 45%+, was quoted at 94.4%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231) HLE covers multiple academic disciplines. [3](https://lastexam.ai/) Our interpretation is that tools, attempts, scoring conventions and model versions must be kept comparable. A headline score that uses a different setup may be interesting research while failing this contract’s test. A higher result also leaves practical questions about reproducibility and the types of mistakes a model still makes. ## The evaluation setup is part of the result Uses the highest qualifying newly added Opus model’s displayed HLE Accuracy at noon ET the following day. Same-day entries count; next-day additions do not. A removed, unreinstated entry does not qualify. Seven-day source absence or no qualifying entry by December 31, 2026 means No. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-45-or-higher-20261231) The practical implication for 45%+ is to distinguish necessary conditions from supporting clues. A plausible explanation can help identify what to investigate, but the outcome still turns on evidence satisfying the specified test. Treat the score as a reproducible test claim; avoid turning one number into a universal verdict about intelligence. ## What the other prices and the trading record reveal The comparison with 50%+, quoted at 90.35%, gives a 4.05-percentage-point spread against 45%+. That is a difference in quoted expectations, not a measured performance margin. Before treating the outcomes as a complete probability distribution, check whether they are mutually exclusive and whether a None, Other or fallback outcome is included. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231) This event recorded $106,882 in cumulative turnover across its life. The captured record contains 4 eligible open constituent contracts. Those are the scope of this snapshot, not a count of independent forecasters. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231) ## The next evidence that would change the assessment For this event, watch the benchmark publisher’s result and methodology; the exact company, model version and tool setting; the required score boundary and publication deadline. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-45-or-higher-20261231) The next meaningful update is evidence about the required milestone or measurement. A changed quote by itself does not identify what happened or why. A qualifying public benchmark result with the required model and evaluation setup would support the score threshold. An unofficial result, a different tool configuration or a score outside the allowed observation period could fail to qualify. ## A fact worth knowing The open conditions in this snapshot span 5.1% to 94.4%. That 89.30-percentage-point range compares different contract conditions; it is not a confidence interval for one prediction. Source: [Polymarket: Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? — observed event and constituent prices](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? ### Supporting case A qualifying public benchmark result with the required model and evaluation setup would support the score threshold. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-45-or-higher-20261231) ### Challenging case An unofficial result, a different tool configuration or a score outside the allowed observation period could fail to qualify. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-45-or-higher-20261231) ### What to watch - The benchmark publisher’s result and methodology. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-45-or-higher-20261231) - The exact company, model version and tool setting. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-45-or-higher-20261231) - The required score boundary and publication deadline. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-45-or-higher-20261231) ### What may already be priced in The observed 94.4% quote is the captured market expectation for 45%+. Publicly known conditions alone do not establish that this price is too high or too low. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231) ### Assessment Treat the score as a reproducible test claim; avoid turning one number into a universal verdict about intelligence. ## How the market resolves Uses the highest qualifying newly added Opus model’s displayed HLE Accuracy at noon ET the following day. Same-day entries count; next-day additions do not. A removed, unreinstated entry does not qualify. Seven-day source absence or no qualifying entry by December 31, 2026 means No. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-45-or-higher-20261231) ## Timing and deadline Noon US Eastern on the day after the qualifying Opus result first appears. The no-entry cutoff is December 31, 2026; the specified source-failure fallback extends seven days. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-45-or-higher-20261231) ## Questions and answers ### Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? The selected condition, 45%+, was priced at 94.4% when checked October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. The model’s first appearance on the official result site sets the observation clock. Public release, a separate score announcement and a result for another Claude family are different events. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231) ### What evidence would be decisive for this particular outcome? The key observations are the benchmark publisher’s result and methodology; the exact company, model version and tool setting; the required score boundary and publication deadline. The full linked contract governs exceptions. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-45-or-higher-20261231) ### Does this market price prove the event will happen? No. 94.4% describes the quoted focus condition in a dated snapshot. It is not a verified forecast, an official result or evidence that all participants independently evaluated the same information. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231) ## Related market contracts - [Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-45-or-higher-20261231) - [Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-50-or-higher-20261231) - [Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-55-or-higher-20261231) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket: Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? — observed event and constituent prices](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231) 2. [Polymarket: Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? — exact resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261231/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-debut-with-a-humanitys-last-exam-score-of-45-or-higher-20261231) 3. [Humanity’s Last Exam: original benchmark](https://lastexam.ai/) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)