# Will Stephen Curry leave the Warriors? The roster test behind the odds What must happen for Stephen Curry not belonging to the Warriors roster by the stated cutoff, how the leading prices compare, and which official evidence would change the picture. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: Sports Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T10:18:29.452899Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T10:18:29.452899Z ## Quick answer The market concerns Stephen Curry not belonging to the Warriors roster by the stated cutoff. The selected Yes side was quoted at 0.35%. [4](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) A leading price describes expectations; it does not establish an official winner or qualifying announcement. The decisive evidence is the official outcome within the written window, including any exception that changes settlement. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ## Key takeaways - The outcome being tested is Stephen Curry not belonging to the Warriors roster by the stated cutoff. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) - An injury or inactive designation is not equivalent to leaving the franchise’s roster. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) - The relevant window is October 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ## What the leading quote actually says In the October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC snapshot, this event recorded $291,873 in cumulative trading across its contracts. The Yes side was quoted at 0.35%, with No at 99.65%. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors)[4](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) The percentage belongs to this one proposition. It should not be reinterpreted as a vote share, a share of spectators, or a measure of how much has already been accomplished. [4](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ## The route that must be completed The question is roster membership, not whether Curry appears in a particular game. The written rules include retirement, release, trade, or another departure from the official roster. A rostered player can be unavailable to play without satisfying the departure condition. For the selected outcome, the supporting interpretation requires a verified roster change or official announcement satisfying every timing condition. The challenge is remaining rostered, a nonqualifying contract, or an announcement taking effect too late. These are conditions to investigate, not newly established facts about the named participant. ## Timing and exceptions can change the answer The written condition is Stephen Curry not belonging to the Warriors roster by the stated cutoff. An injury or inactive designation is not equivalent to leaving the franchise’s roster. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) The relevant contractual window is October 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The descriptive deadline must take precedence over treating an API end-date field as the sporting schedule. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ## The evidence worth following next Official player or franchise statements rather than unsourced rumors. Then check the precise roster or contract status named in the rules. These observations are more informative than repeating the current market order without asking which hurdle has changed. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors)[3](https://www.nba.com/players) The snapshot contains 1 open contracts with reported trading activity or liquidity. The selected contract reported $291,873 in turnover and $65,349 in liquidity. That separates the scale of the parent event from the immediate market being examined; neither measure proves the forecast is correct. [4](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ## A fact worth knowing The wording explicitly says that roster membership counts regardless of playing status. Source: [Polymarket contract: NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors ### Supporting case The outcome becomes better supported with a verified roster change or official announcement satisfying every timing condition. Verify the decisive event rather than substituting the current market ranking. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ### Challenging case The counter-case is remaining rostered, a nonqualifying contract, or an announcement taking effect too late. The specific timing condition can defeat a superficially similar outcome. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ### What to watch - Official player or franchise statements rather than unsourced rumors. [3](https://www.nba.com/players) - The precise roster or contract status named in the rules. [3](https://www.nba.com/players) - The effective date and deadline together. [3](https://www.nba.com/players) ### What may already be priced in The Yes side was quoted at 0.35%, with No at 99.65%. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors)[4](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) These quotes were observed October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. They are market prices, not independently calculated forecasts; this analysis does not establish that any outcome is mispriced. ### Assessment Focus on the remaining conditions for Stephen Curry not belonging to the Warriors roster by the stated cutoff. A useful update explains which condition changed, rather than treating a familiar name or a busy market as the answer. ## How the market resolves The market resolves according to Stephen Curry not belonging to the Warriors roster by the stated cutoff. An injury or inactive designation is not equivalent to leaving the franchise’s roster. Use the official source specified in the linked rules. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ## Timing and deadline October 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ## Questions and answers ### What exactly determines this market’s outcome? The test is Stephen Curry not belonging to the Warriors roster by the stated cutoff. An injury or inactive designation is not equivalent to leaving the franchise’s roster. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ### When does the qualifying window end? October 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ### How should I interpret the leading percentage? It is the quoted price-implied chance of the selected contract, not an official result or a proportion of votes. The figures are fixed to this article’s dated observation. [4](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ## Related market contracts - [NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket: NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? — event and total volume](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) 2. [Polymarket contract: NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors/nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) 3. [NBA: player and team rosters](https://www.nba.com/players) 4. [Polymarket: structured event and contract record — observed October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=nba-stephen-curry-to-leave-warriors) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)