# Lee Jae-myung’s exit market is broader than an arrest question The mechanism matters because a headline about legal or political pressure does not by itself identify whether the officeholding condition has changed. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026 Publisher: The Outlook By: [The Outlook editorial desk](https://www.homeincomelab.com/editorial) Category: Politics Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T10:22:53.910Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T10:22:53.910Z ## Quick answer The contract includes cessation of the presidency, a timely resignation or removal announcement, and the specified forms of detention or effective permanent prevention from carrying out the role. The selected Yes quote was 6.2% at October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ## Key takeaways - The contract includes cessation of the presidency, a timely resignation or removal announcement, and the specified forms of detention or effective permanent prevention from carrying out the role. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) - An investigation or controversy alone need not satisfy any of the written departure conditions. This contract does not establish that such a departure is underway. - The window ends December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ## The condition behind the headline The mechanism matters because a headline about legal or political pressure does not by itself identify whether the officeholding condition has changed. The contract includes cessation of the presidency, a timely resignation or removal announcement, and the specified forms of detention or effective permanent prevention from carrying out the role. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ## What the market snapshot can tell you At the October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC retrieval, the selected Yes contract—“Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?”—was quoted at 6.2%. The event had $289,098 in cumulative volume. These are a dated price snapshot and event-wide turnover, respectively. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) The quoted Yes probability describes this specific contract at retrieval time; it is not an official determination that the condition occurred. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) The API reported event-level liquidity of $55,194 at retrieval. That aggregate does not establish the executable depth or spread of this individual position. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ## The evidence that could change the reading An investigation or controversy alone need not satisfy any of the written departure conditions. This contract does not establish that such a departure is underway. The useful checks are official statements on officeholding; a definitive resignation or removal announcement. Those checks connect the public story to the settlement condition instead of treating attention as confirmation. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ## The deadline and the interpretation trap The window ends December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) An announced departure can count before its effective date. That detail narrows the question being priced and is worth checking before comparing this contract with a broader political prediction. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ## A fact worth knowing An announced departure can count before its effective date. Source: [Polymarket contract resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? — Yes at 6.2% in the dated snapshot. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ### Supporting case The selected Yes case requires evidence satisfying this exact test: The contract includes cessation of the presidency, a timely resignation or removal announcement, and the specified forms of detention or effective permanent prevention from carrying out the role. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ### Challenging case An investigation or controversy alone need not satisfy any of the written departure conditions. This contract does not establish that such a departure is underway. ### What to watch - Official statements on officeholding - A definitive resignation or removal announcement - Evidence that any effective-removal condition is met ### What may already be priced in The 6.2% Yes quote already expresses the market’s dated assessment of this particular condition. The quoted Yes probability describes this specific contract at retrieval time; it is not an official determination that the condition occurred. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ### Assessment The mechanism matters because a headline about legal or political pressure does not by itself identify whether the officeholding condition has changed. The window ends December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ## How the market resolves The contract includes cessation of the presidency, a timely resignation or removal announcement, and the specified forms of detention or effective permanent prevention from carrying out the role. An announced departure can count before its effective date. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ## Timing and deadline The window ends December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ## Questions and answers ### What does this Polymarket contract actually measure? The contract includes cessation of the presidency, a timely resignation or removal announcement, and the specified forms of detention or effective permanent prevention from carrying out the role. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ### What deadline and exceptions matter? The window ends December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. An announced departure can count before its effective date. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ### Does the quoted probability confirm the event has happened? No. This is a dated trading quote, not an official result or independent confirmation of the underlying claim. An investigation or controversy alone need not satisfy any of the written departure conditions. This contract does not establish that such a departure is underway. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ## Related market contracts - [Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket event and market data](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) 2. [Selected contract: Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026) 3. [Polymarket: how resolution follows contract rules](https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364518-how-are-prediction-markets-resolved) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)