# Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? The question is about Sébastien Lecornu’s tenure in the French premiership, not general approval or the intensity of criticism. The decisive distinction is the contract’s stated departure trigger. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381 Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: Politics Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z ## Quick answer The question is about Sébastien Lecornu’s tenure in the French premiership, not general approval or the intensity of criticism. The leading open contract, “December 31, 2026”, was priced at 28.5% for Yes in the October 4 snapshot. Any period out of the prime-minister role qualifies, as does an announced resignation or removal before the cutoff regardless of its effective date. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) ## Key takeaways - Any period out of the prime-minister role qualifies, as does an announced resignation or removal before the cutoff regardless of its effective date. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) - The question is about Sébastien Lecornu’s tenure in the French premiership, not general approval or the intensity of criticism. - Each child uses its own stated cutoff. The selected December 2026 child ends December 31; where specified, the time is 11:59 p.m. ET. Earlier-dated URLs do not override the child’s written rules. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) ## The question behind the headline The question is about Sébastien Lecornu’s tenure in the French premiership, not general approval or the intensity of criticism. The decisive distinction is the contract’s stated departure trigger. At the October 4, 2026 market snapshot, December 31, 2026 carried a 28.5% Yes price. Other open contracts included October 31, 2026 at 15%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) ## The condition that changes the answer Any period out of the prime-minister role qualifies, as does an announced resignation or removal before the cutoff regardless of its effective date. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) Each child uses its own stated cutoff. The selected December 2026 child ends December 31; where specified, the time is 11:59 p.m. ET. Earlier-dated URLs do not override the child’s written rules. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) ## Evidence for and against the leading outcome An authenticated announcement or effective departure meeting this event’s exact rule supports Yes. Criticism, temporary speculation or a change in duties can fall short of leaving the named office under the contract. The next useful checks are exact office and departure trigger; official statement and effective date; selected child deadline. The linked primary references make the process and named data source inspectable. [2](https://www.elysee.fr/en/french-presidency/constitution-of-4-october-1958)[3](https://www.info.gouv.fr/quest-ce-quun-gouvernement) ## A closer look at the market These child contracts can overlap: different dates, thresholds or people do not necessarily describe mutually exclusive alternatives. Their Yes prices should not be added into a single winner probability, and the highest Yes price is not automatically the most informative question. The event had approximately $359,034 in total traded volume at observation. That is a record of turnover across this event, not a count of distinct people, a search-volume estimate or proof that every child contract is easy to trade. The analytical quote is fixed to the timestamp shown here; later live prices can differ. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story. ## A fact worth knowing A tenure market can use a different trigger from a market about who replaces the officeholder. Source: [Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus December 31, 2026 — Yes ### Supporting case An authenticated announcement or effective departure meeting this event’s exact rule supports Yes. ### Challenging case Criticism, temporary speculation or a change in duties can fall short of leaving the named office under the contract. ### What to watch - Exact office and departure trigger - Official statement and effective date - Selected child deadline ### What may already be priced in The analysis starts from 28.5% for the Yes side of “December 31, 2026”. A view merely agreeing that this is plausible does not show that the price understates it. The probability, rule and remaining time all have to be compared. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) ### Assessment The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story. ## How the market resolves Any period out of the prime-minister role qualifies, as does an announced resignation or removal before the cutoff regardless of its effective date. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) ## Timing and deadline Each child uses its own stated cutoff. The selected December 2026 child ends December 31; where specified, the time is 11:59 p.m. ET. Earlier-dated URLs do not override the child’s written rules. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) ## Questions and answers ### What exactly would settle this market? Any period out of the prime-minister role qualifies, as does an announced resignation or removal before the cutoff regardless of its effective date. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) ### What is the deadline, and can settlement come later? Each child uses its own stated cutoff. The selected December 2026 child ends December 31; where specified, the time is 11:59 p.m. ET. Earlier-dated URLs do not override the child’s written rules. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) ### Does the quoted probability show an advantage? No. 28.5% is the observed Yes price for “December 31, 2026”, not a verified probability from independent research. A useful assessment needs evidence that changes the expected chance under the exact rules, plus the actual price available at the time. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) ## Related market contracts - [December 31, 2026](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-december-31-2026) - [October 31, 2026](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-october-31-2026-20260728190335207) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381) 2. [Élysée — French Constitution](https://www.elysee.fr/en/french-presidency/constitution-of-4-october-1958) 3. [info.gouv.fr — official source](https://www.info.gouv.fr/quest-ce-quun-gouvernement) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)