# Iran coup attempt by December 31: the evidence and conditions to watch A title, governing authority and a transfer of power can diverge. The decisive evidence is institutional: an effective resignation, replacement, removal or loss of authority that meets the rules. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30 Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: World Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T10:18:37.348448Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T10:18:37.348448Z ## Quick answer Iran coup attempt by December 31? The answer depends on the specific qualifying event, its evidence source and the written deadline. The decisive evidence is institutional: an effective resignation, replacement, removal or loss of authority that meets the rules. The observed 9.5% quote records a traded expectation; it does not establish the result. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ## Key takeaways - Iran coup attempt by December 31? Read the exact qualifying conditions before comparing related headlines. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) - An authenticated official act or independently corroborated transfer of the particular authority named in the contract would strengthen the positive case. - A government’s claim to have foiled a plot is not automatically equivalent to a qualifying coup attempt. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ## What this event actually asks The useful question is precise: Iran coup attempt by December 31? In the API observation at 09:57 UTC on 2026-10-04, the selected contract’s first listed outcome was priced at 9.5%. The parent event had recorded $2,145,473 in cumulative volume. This is turnover across the event, not a count of independent forecasters or proof that this outcome is correctly priced. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) The Yes condition is that there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at least once during the interval from market creation to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ## A coup attempt is not the same as a protest or a completed overthrow The rule concerns a coordinated effort by state actors, such as military or security factions, to seize power unlawfully. General unrest or revolutionary action by non-state forces alone is excluded. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) A government’s claim that it foiled a plot needs the corroboration specified by the rule. An attempt can fail while still qualifying, so a forecast of leadership survival is not automatically the opposite side of this contract. Our interpretation is that evidence of coordinated action, the actors involved and the intended seizure of power should be assessed separately. Market prices and viral rumors do not establish that a plot exists. ## Which evidence would change the assessment? An authenticated official act or independently corroborated transfer of the particular authority named in the contract would strengthen the positive case. A temporary absence, an announced future departure or a change in a different office may not meet the rule. Where de facto power matters, a formal title can also be an incomplete guide. A government’s claim to have foiled a plot is not automatically equivalent to a qualifying coup attempt. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ## The next useful checkpoint Written-rule date: December 31, 2026; 11:59 PM (ET). The selected contract and any reporting grace period govern settlement. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) Our reading is conditional: compare the next primary record with the exact threshold above, then revisit the case if the evidence contradicts it. A high quoted chance does not establish certainty; a low quote does not make the event impossible. The value of the article is a clearer test of the claim, not an asserted trading advantage. ## A fact worth knowing The contract concerns a coup attempt, so a failed qualifying attempt can count even if the incumbent remains in power. Source: [Polymarket: Iran coup attempt by December 31? — selected contract and full resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus Iran coup attempt by December 31? ### Supporting case Corroborated coordinated action by qualifying state actors to seize power would strengthen the positive case, even if the attempt ultimately fails. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ### Challenging case Protests, rumors or a government allegation without the required corroboration may be insufficient. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ### What to watch - Independent corroboration of coordinated action. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) - Whether participants are qualifying state actors. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) - Whether the act is an attempted unlawful seizure rather than ordinary political contestation. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ### What may already be priced in The selected contract’s first outcome was 9.5% at 09:57 UTC on 2026-10-04. That price is the observation being analyzed, not an independent estimate of fair value. The separately timestamped live panel may differ. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ### Assessment Form a view by checking the specified event against the evidence above. Publicly available context can explain a price without proving that it is wrong; this article does not establish a positive trading edge. ## How the market resolves The Yes condition is that there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at least once during the interval from market creation to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A government’s claim to have foiled a plot is not automatically equivalent to a qualifying coup attempt. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ## Timing and deadline Written-rule date: December 31, 2026; 11:59 PM (ET). The selected contract and any reporting grace period govern settlement. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ## Questions and answers ### What exactly does this Polymarket event measure? The Yes condition is that there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at least once during the interval from market creation to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ### What evidence matters most for this outcome? An authenticated official act or independently corroborated transfer of the particular authority named in the contract would strengthen the positive case. The full contract defines which sources and exceptions govern settlement. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ### Does the market’s volume or price prove the outcome? No. The recorded event volume is cumulative trading turnover, while the quote is a contract price at a stated time. Neither is an official finding about the underlying event. Check the exact outcome and its resolution evidence. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ## Related market contracts - [December 31](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket: Iran coup attempt by...? — event and aggregate volume](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30) 2. [Polymarket: Iran coup attempt by December 31? — selected contract and full resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/iran-coup-attempt-by-december-31) 3. 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