# How many people will Trump deport in 2026: the evidence and conditions to watch Identify the decision that changes the answer. For this event, work backward from the specified observable outcome. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823 Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: World Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T10:18:37.348448Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T10:18:37.348448Z ## Quick answer The contract counts ICE removals during fiscal year 2026, using the FY 2026 annual report. It is not a count of all immigration encounters, arrests or calendar-year departures. Check the dated quote alongside the full contract before forming a view. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) ## Key takeaways - The contract counts ICE removals during fiscal year 2026, using the FY 2026 annual report. It is not a count of all immigration encounters, arrests or calendar-year departures. Its fallback reporting deadline is February 28, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, so an elapsed operating year and an unresolved contract can coexist. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) - A primary record that establishes the named action, authority and timing would strengthen the positive case. The evidence should identify the same event the contract measures. - An intention, an intermediate step or an ambiguous report may fail the final criterion. Several weak reports repeating one claim are not independent confirmation. ## What this event actually asks The useful question is precise: Will Trump deport 700-800k people? In the API observation at 09:57 UTC on 2026-10-04, the selected contract’s first listed outcome was priced at 1.4%. The parent event had recorded $128,469 in cumulative volume. This is turnover across the event, not a count of independent forecasters or proof that this outcome is correctly priced. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) ## Count the defined administrative event, not every related headline The contract counts ICE removals during fiscal year 2026, using the FY 2026 annual report. It is not a count of all immigration encounters, arrests or calendar-year departures. Its fallback reporting deadline is February 28, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, so an elapsed operating year and an unresolved contract can coexist. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) An administrative series needs a stable unit: people, applications, approvals and actions are not interchangeable. Deduplicate observations and check the reporting period before calculating a trend. A policy announcement may change future capacity without adding anything to a completed-action count. The human consequences also extend beyond the tally. Article 13 of the Universal Declaration addresses freedom of movement and the right to leave and return to one’s country; the market’s numerical threshold is not a complete evaluation of immigration policy. [3](https://www.ohchr.org/en/human-rights/universal-declaration/translations/english) ## Which evidence would change the assessment? A primary record that establishes the named action, authority and timing would strengthen the positive case. The evidence should identify the same event the contract measures. An intention, an intermediate step or an ambiguous report may fail the final criterion. Several weak reports repeating one claim are not independent confirmation. Check whether a new report changes the evidence for the specified condition or merely repeats an existing claim. A price move can identify a question worth investigating without establishing its cause. ## The next useful checkpoint The selected contract is “Will Trump deport 700-800k people?”. Its written rules use ET. The API schedule is 2027-03-01T04:59:00Z; that schedule does not replace the rule’s event and reporting cutoffs. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) Our reading is conditional: compare the next primary record with the exact threshold above, then revisit the case if the evidence contradicts it. A high quoted chance does not establish certainty; a low quote does not make the event impossible. The value of the article is a clearer test of the claim, not an asserted trading advantage. ## A fact worth knowing This contract follows a fiscal-year ICE measure, even though the title can look like a calendar-year question. Source: [Polymarket: Will Trump deport 700-800k people? — selected contract and full resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus Will Trump deport 700-800k people? ### Supporting case A published, correctly scoped count in the selected bracket would support that outcome. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) ### Challenging case Using a different administrative measure, reporting year or incomplete preliminary count can produce a misleading comparison. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) ### What to watch - The designated official publication and reporting period. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) - The definition of a counted individual or action. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) - Corrections, duplicates and any fallback source deadline. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) ### What may already be priced in The selected contract’s first outcome was 1.4% at 09:57 UTC on 2026-10-04. That price is the observation being analyzed, not an independent estimate of fair value. The separately timestamped live panel may differ. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) ### Assessment Form a view by checking the specified event against the evidence above. Publicly available context can explain a price without proving that it is wrong; this article does not establish a positive trading edge. ## How the market resolves This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) ## Timing and deadline The measurement period is fiscal year 2026. The rule’s report-publication fallback is February 28, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) ## Questions and answers ### What exactly does this Polymarket event measure? This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) ### What evidence matters most for this outcome? A primary record that establishes the named action, authority and timing would strengthen the positive case. The evidence should identify the same event the contract measures. The full contract defines which sources and exceptions govern settlement. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) ### Does the market’s volume or price prove the outcome? No. The recorded event volume is cumulative trading turnover, while the quote is a contract price at a stated time. Neither is an official finding about the underlying event. Check the exact outcome and its resolution evidence. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) ## Related market contracts - [700-800k](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) - [300-400k](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-300-400k-people-851) - [800-900k](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-800-900k-people-745) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket: How many people will Trump deport in 2026? — event and aggregate volume](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823) 2. [Polymarket: Will Trump deport 700-800k people? — selected contract and full resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823/will-trump-deport-700-800k-people-847) 3. [OHCHR: Universal Declaration of Human Rights, English text](https://www.ohchr.org/en/human-rights/universal-declaration/translations/english) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)