# Guinea-Bissau’s presidential market: check the unresolved election window The rule’s election dates are in 2025 and are already past. An open API flag should therefore be read as an unresolved contract state, not evidence of a newly scheduled future election. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/guinea-bissau-presidential-election Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: Politics Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T10:22:53.910Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T10:22:53.910Z ## Quick answer The contract follows the winner of the specified presidential election and includes a possible second round. It contains a final fallback if a definitive result is unavailable. The selected Yes quote was 17.75% at October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ## Key takeaways - The contract follows the winner of the specified presidential election and includes a possible second round. It contains a final fallback if a definitive result is unavailable. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) - Treating the old schedule as upcoming can obscure whether the uncertainty concerns voting, a disputed result or settlement itself. - The written fallback is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET; if the result remains unknown, Other wins. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ## The condition behind the headline The rule’s election dates are in 2025 and are already past. An open API flag should therefore be read as an unresolved contract state, not evidence of a newly scheduled future election. The contract follows the winner of the specified presidential election and includes a possible second round. It contains a final fallback if a definitive result is unavailable. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ## What the market snapshot can tell you At the October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC retrieval, the selected Yes contract—“Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?”—was quoted at 17.75%. The event had $341,406 in cumulative volume. These are a dated price snapshot and event-wide turnover, respectively. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) The event contains multiple separate contracts. The selected quote should not be treated as an exhaustive ranking of all outcomes, and each contract’s own terms remain relevant. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) The API reported event-level liquidity of $116,233 at retrieval. That aggregate does not establish the executable depth or spread of this individual position. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ## The evidence that could change the reading Treating the old schedule as upcoming can obscure whether the uncertainty concerns voting, a disputed result or settlement itself. The useful checks are the election commission’s official record; whether the specified election has a definitive result. Those checks connect the public story to the settlement condition instead of treating attention as confirmation. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ## The deadline and the interpretation trap The written fallback is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET; if the result remains unknown, Other wins. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) A possible second round is included in the same winner question. That detail narrows the question being priced and is worth checking before comparing this contract with a broader political prediction. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ## A fact worth knowing A possible second round is included in the same winner question. Source: [Polymarket contract resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? — Yes at 17.75% in the dated snapshot. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ### Supporting case The selected Yes case requires evidence satisfying this exact test: The contract follows the winner of the specified presidential election and includes a possible second round. It contains a final fallback if a definitive result is unavailable. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ### Challenging case Treating the old schedule as upcoming can obscure whether the uncertainty concerns voting, a disputed result or settlement itself. ### What to watch - The election commission’s official record - Whether the specified election has a definitive result - Any clarification concerning the fallback deadline ### What may already be priced in The 17.75% Yes quote already expresses the market’s dated assessment of this particular condition. The event contains multiple separate contracts. The selected quote should not be treated as an exhaustive ranking of all outcomes, and each contract’s own terms remain relevant. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ### Assessment The rule’s election dates are in 2025 and are already past. An open API flag should therefore be read as an unresolved contract state, not evidence of a newly scheduled future election. The written fallback is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET; if the result remains unknown, Other wins. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ## How the market resolves The contract follows the winner of the specified presidential election and includes a possible second round. It contains a final fallback if a definitive result is unavailable. A possible second round is included in the same winner question. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ## Timing and deadline The written fallback is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET; if the result remains unknown, Other wins. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ## Questions and answers ### What does this Polymarket contract actually measure? The contract follows the winner of the specified presidential election and includes a possible second round. It contains a final fallback if a definitive result is unavailable. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ### What deadline and exceptions matter? The written fallback is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET; if the result remains unknown, Other wins. A possible second round is included in the same winner question. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ### Does the quoted probability confirm the event has happened? No. This is a dated trading quote, not an official result or independent confirmation of the underlying claim. Treating the old schedule as upcoming can obscure whether the uncertainty concerns voting, a disputed result or settlement itself. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election)[2](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ## Related market contracts - [Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) - [Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-umaro-sissoco-embal-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) - [Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-jos-mrio-vaz-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) - [Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-joo-bernardo-vieira-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket event and market data](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election) 2. [Selected contract: Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?](https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election/will-fernando-dias-da-costa-win-the-2025-guinea-bissau-presidential-election) 3. [Polymarket: how resolution follows contract rules](https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364518-how-are-prediction-markets-resolved) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)