# First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET: the launch hurdle behind the valuation odds This is a first-arrival race using FDV, not circulating market capitalization. The tokens have different assigned providers, and the rules do not adjust away methodological differences. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135 Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: Crypto Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T10:28:12.452998Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T10:28:12.452998Z ## Quick answer “Artificial Inu (AI)” was quoted at 11.5% on October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. This is a first-arrival race using FDV, not circulating market capitalization. The linked rules decide the result; this dated quote is not confirmation. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135) ## Key takeaways - Artificial Inu (AI): 11.5% in the dated research snapshot. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135) - This is a first-arrival race using FDV, not circulating market capitalization. The tokens have different assigned providers, and the rules do not adjust away methodological differences. - Compare first qualifying arrivals using FDV, not later market-cap rankings or token prices. ## First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET: the question behind the price This is a first-arrival race using FDV, not circulating market capitalization. The tokens have different assigned providers, and the rules do not adjust away methodological differences. In the snapshot checked October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC, the focus outcome, Artificial Inu (AI), was quoted at 11.5%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135) FDV values the complete supply. [3](https://www.coingecko.com/en/glossary/fully-diluted-valuation) The token with the largest valuation at year-end need not be the first to cross this boundary. Our interpretation is that provider timestamps and each token’s assigned valuation source must be compared carefully, because the race preserves the first qualifying crossing. ## The first valid crossing decides the race Uses the first listed token to reach at least $1 billion FDV on its designated CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap source before December 25, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. A momentary verified crossing counts; same-minute crossings favor the larger FDV. No crossing resolves None. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-artificial-inu-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) The practical implication for Artificial Inu (AI) is to distinguish necessary conditions from supporting clues. A plausible explanation can help identify what to investigate, but the outcome still turns on evidence satisfying the specified test. Compare first qualifying arrivals using FDV, not later market-cap rankings or token prices. ## What the other prices and the trading record reveal Another open condition, Cash Cat (CASHCAT), is priced at 3.5%, a 8.00-percentage-point difference from Artificial Inu (AI). Thresholds can be nested: satisfying a harder threshold can also satisfy an easier one. Their prices must therefore be interpreted as separate conditions, not vote shares that automatically sum to 100%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135) This event recorded $363,144 in cumulative turnover across its life. The captured record contains 5 eligible open constituent contracts. Those are the scope of this snapshot, not a count of independent forecasters. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135) ## The next evidence that would change the assessment For this event, watch each token’s designated provider and qualifying FDV; the timestamp of the first valid crossing; same-minute and no-crossing fallback rules. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-artificial-inu-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) The next meaningful update is evidence about the required milestone or measurement. A changed quote by itself does not identify what happened or why. The focus token reaching the required FDV on its designated provider before every rival would support its outcome. A rival arriving first, an excluded provider’s value or no qualifying crossing before the deadline can defeat the selected outcome. ## A fact worth knowing The open conditions in this snapshot span 0.1% to 86%. That 85.90-percentage-point range compares different contract conditions; it is not a confidence interval for one prediction. Source: [Polymarket: First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET? — observed event and constituent prices](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? ### Supporting case The focus token reaching the required FDV on its designated provider before every rival would support its outcome. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-artificial-inu-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) ### Challenging case A rival arriving first, an excluded provider’s value or no qualifying crossing before the deadline can defeat the selected outcome. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-artificial-inu-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) ### What to watch - Each token’s designated provider and qualifying FDV. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-artificial-inu-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) - The timestamp of the first valid crossing. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-artificial-inu-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) - Same-minute and no-crossing fallback rules. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-artificial-inu-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) ### What may already be priced in The observed 11.5% quote is the captured market expectation for Artificial Inu (AI). Publicly known conditions alone do not establish that this price is too high or too low. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135) ### Assessment Compare first qualifying arrivals using FDV, not later market-cap rankings or token prices. ## How the market resolves Uses the first listed token to reach at least $1 billion FDV on its designated CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap source before December 25, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET. A momentary verified crossing counts; same-minute crossings favor the larger FDV. No crossing resolves None. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-artificial-inu-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) ## Timing and deadline The focus contract uses December 25, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. US Eastern time. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-artificial-inu-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) ## Questions and answers ### First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET? The selected condition, Artificial Inu (AI), was priced at 11.5% when checked October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. This is a first-arrival race using FDV, not circulating market capitalization. The tokens have different assigned providers, and the rules do not adjust away methodological differences. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135) ### What evidence would be decisive for this particular outcome? The key observations are each token’s designated provider and qualifying FDV; the timestamp of the first valid crossing; same-minute and no-crossing fallback rules. The full linked contract governs exceptions. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-artificial-inu-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) ### Does this market price prove the event will happen? No. 11.5% describes the quoted focus condition in a dated snapshot. It is not a verified forecast, an official result or evidence that all participants independently evaluated the same information. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135) ## Related market contracts - [Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-artificial-inu-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) - [Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-cash-cat-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) - [Will ANSEM be the first to hit a $1B FDV?](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-ansem-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket: First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET? — observed event and constituent prices](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135) 2. [Polymarket: Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? — exact resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/first-to-hit-1b-fdv-ansem-cashcat-ai-or-net-20260902214135/will-artificial-inu-be-the-first-to-hit-a-1b-fdv) 3. [CoinGecko: Fully Diluted Valuation](https://www.coingecko.com/en/glossary/fully-diluted-valuation) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)