# Felix FDV valuation thresholds one day after launch: the launch hurdle behind the valuation odds This is a one-minute closing observation at noon Eastern, not a test of whether the asset ever visits the level that day. A price spike can therefore be irrelevant to the result. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch Publisher: The Outlook By: The Outlook editorial desk Category: Crypto Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T10:28:12.452998Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T10:28:12.452998Z ## Quick answer “$5M” was quoted at 42% on October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. This is a one-minute closing observation at noon Eastern, not a test of whether the asset ever visits the level that day. The linked rules decide the result; this dated quote is not confirmation. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) ## Key takeaways - $5M: 42% in the dated research snapshot. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) - This is a one-minute closing observation at noon Eastern, not a test of whether the asset ever visits the level that day. A price spike can therefore be irrelevant to the result. - Separate the probability of launch from the conditional valuation after launch; a low combined price does not establish that the token itself will be cheap. ## Felix FDV above which deadline one day after launch: the question behind the price This is a one-minute closing observation at noon Eastern, not a test of whether the asset ever visits the level that day. A price spike can therefore be irrelevant to the result. In the snapshot checked October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC, the focus outcome, $5M, was quoted at 42%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) FDV values the complete supply. [3](https://www.coingecko.com/en/glossary/fully-diluted-valuation) Our interpretation is that a high headline valuation can coexist with a small amount of freely available supply. The useful questions are how many units enter trading, who can sell them, and whether buyers support the price after initial distribution. A quoted valuation is not the same as cash raised or proceeds every holder could realize. Felix’s documentation describes trading and lending products, including collateralized feUSD borrowing. Product access should be separated from the issuance and valuation of a qualifying new protocol token. [4](https://usefelix.gitbook.io/docs) ## Valuation needs both a launch and a price Requires a qualifying publicly transferable, tradable token launch, then FDV strictly above the selected threshold at 4 p.m. US Eastern on the following calendar day. The most liquid available price source is used. No launch by the stated cutoff produces No. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-5m-one-day-after-launch) The practical implication for $5M is to distinguish necessary conditions from supporting clues. A plausible explanation can help identify what to investigate, but the outcome still turns on evidence satisfying the specified test. Separate the probability of launch from the conditional valuation after launch; a low combined price does not establish that the token itself will be cheap. ## What the other prices and the trading record reveal Another open condition, $10M, is priced at 27.5%, a 14.50-percentage-point difference from $5M. Thresholds can be nested: satisfying a harder threshold can also satisfy an easier one. Their prices must therefore be interpreted as separate conditions, not vote shares that automatically sum to 100%. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) This event recorded $365,089 in cumulative turnover across its life. The captured record contains 10 eligible open constituent contracts. Those are the scope of this snapshot, not a count of independent forecasters. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) ## The next evidence that would change the assessment For this event, watch the exact Binance pair in the focus contract; the final close of the one-minute candle starting at noon ET; the strict threshold comparison using the source’s precision. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-5m-one-day-after-launch) The next meaningful update is evidence about the required milestone or measurement. A changed quote by itself does not identify what happened or why. A qualifying launch plus a sustained observable price at the specified measurement time would support the threshold outcome. A delay can defeat the contract before valuation is considered; after launch, more available supply or weaker bids could leave the threshold unmet. ## A fact worth knowing The open conditions in this snapshot span 1.8% to 42%. That 40.20-percentage-point range compares different contract conditions; it is not a confidence interval for one prediction. Source: [Polymarket: Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch? — observed event and constituent prices](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus Felix Protocol FDV above $5M one day after launch? ### Supporting case A qualifying launch plus a sustained observable price at the specified measurement time would support the threshold outcome. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-5m-one-day-after-launch) ### Challenging case A delay can defeat the contract before valuation is considered; after launch, more available supply or weaker bids could leave the threshold unmet. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-5m-one-day-after-launch) ### What to watch - The exact Binance pair in the focus contract. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-5m-one-day-after-launch) - The final close of the one-minute candle starting at noon ET. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-5m-one-day-after-launch) - The strict threshold comparison using the source’s precision. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-5m-one-day-after-launch) ### What may already be priced in The observed 42% quote is the captured market expectation for $5M. Publicly known conditions alone do not establish that this price is too high or too low. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) ### Assessment Separate the probability of launch from the conditional valuation after launch; a low combined price does not establish that the token itself will be cheap. ## How the market resolves Requires a qualifying publicly transferable, tradable token launch, then FDV strictly above the selected threshold at 4 p.m. US Eastern on the following calendar day. The most liquid available price source is used. No launch by the stated cutoff produces No. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-5m-one-day-after-launch) ## Timing and deadline The focus contract uses December 31, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. US Eastern time. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-5m-one-day-after-launch) ## Questions and answers ### Felix FDV above which deadline one day after launch? The selected condition, $5M, was priced at 42% when checked October 4, 2026 at 09:57 UTC. This is a one-minute closing observation at noon Eastern, not a test of whether the asset ever visits the level that day. A price spike can therefore be irrelevant to the result. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) ### What evidence would be decisive for this particular outcome? The key observations are the exact Binance pair in the focus contract; the final close of the one-minute candle starting at noon ET; the strict threshold comparison using the source’s precision. The full linked contract governs exceptions. [2](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-5m-one-day-after-launch) ### Does this market price prove the event will happen? No. 42% describes the quoted focus condition in a dated snapshot. It is not a verified forecast, an official result or evidence that all participants independently evaluated the same information. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) ## Related market contracts - [Felix Protocol FDV above $5M one day after launch?](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-5m-one-day-after-launch) - [Felix Protocol FDV above $10M one day after launch?](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-10m-one-day-after-launch) - [Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-25m-one-day-after-launch-592) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket: Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch? — observed event and constituent prices](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch) 2. [Polymarket: Felix Protocol FDV above $5M one day after launch? — exact resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/felix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/felix-protocol-fdv-above-5m-one-day-after-launch) 3. [CoinGecko: Fully Diluted Valuation](https://www.coingecko.com/en/glossary/fully-diluted-valuation) 4. [Felix: Official product documentation](https://usefelix.gitbook.io/docs) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. [How we work](https://www.homeincomelab.com/methodology) · [Corrections and contact](https://www.homeincomelab.com/contact)