# Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? A new oil record depends on the contract and measurement chosen. This event uses the active CME crude future’s daily high, so neither a retail gasoline price nor a different benchmark settles it. Canonical article: https://www.homeincomelab.com/stories/crude-oil-all-time-high-by Publisher: The Outlook By: [The Outlook editorial desk](https://www.homeincomelab.com/editorial) Category: Economy Analysis as of: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Decision guide market prices observed: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z Published: 2026-10-04T09:57:48.323Z ## Quick answer A new oil record depends on the contract and measurement chosen. The leading open contract, “December 31”, was priced at 10.5% for Yes in the October 4 snapshot. The official active-month CME CL daily high must be greater than $147.27. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) ## Key takeaways - The official active-month CME CL daily high must be greater than $147.27. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) - A new oil record depends on the contract and measurement chosen. - Each selected child has its own final trading date. For the December 31 child, use the final trading day on or before that date; allow 14 calendar days for missing final data. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) ## The question behind the headline A new oil record depends on the contract and measurement chosen. This event uses the active CME crude future’s daily high, so neither a retail gasoline price nor a different benchmark settles it. At the October 4, 2026 market snapshot, December 31 carried a 10.5% Yes price. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) ## The condition that changes the answer The official active-month CME CL daily high must be greater than $147.27. The active month rolls two business days before spot-month expiry; an exactly equal high does not qualify. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) Each selected child has its own final trading date. For the December 31 child, use the final trading day on or before that date; allow 14 calendar days for missing final data. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) ## Evidence for and against the leading outcome A supply-demand shock that drives the specified futures high beyond the historical dollar threshold supports Yes. Another oil benchmark can set a record while CL does not; a rise that only matches $147.27 also falls short. The next useful checks are active contract around rollover; official daily High field; strictly greater than $147.27. The linked primary references make the process and named data source inspectable. [2](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html)[3](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.contractSpecs.html) ## A closer look at the market These child contracts can overlap: different dates, thresholds or people do not necessarily describe mutually exclusive alternatives. Their Yes prices should not be added into a single winner probability, and the highest Yes price is not automatically the most informative question. The event had approximately $4,614,374 in total traded volume at observation. That is a record of turnover across this event, not a count of distinct people, a search-volume estimate or proof that every child contract is easy to trade. The analytical quote is fixed to the timestamp shown here; later live prices can differ. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story. ## A fact worth knowing The active-month rule changes the contract being observed before expiry. Source: [Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) ## Weighing the outcome ### Outcome in focus December 31 — Yes ### Supporting case A supply-demand shock that drives the specified futures high beyond the historical dollar threshold supports Yes. ### Challenging case Another oil benchmark can set a record while CL does not; a rise that only matches $147.27 also falls short. ### What to watch - Active contract around rollover - Official daily High field - Strictly greater than $147.27 ### What may already be priced in The analysis starts from 10.5% for the Yes side of “December 31”. A view merely agreeing that this is plausible does not show that the price understates it. The probability, rule and remaining time all have to be compared. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) ### Assessment The useful conclusion is conditional: check the exact milestone before interpreting the price as a view on the larger story. ## How the market resolves The official active-month CME CL daily high must be greater than $147.27. The active month rolls two business days before spot-month expiry; an exactly equal high does not qualify. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) ## Timing and deadline Each selected child has its own final trading date. For the December 31 child, use the final trading day on or before that date; allow 14 calendar days for missing final data. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) ## Questions and answers ### What exactly would settle this market? The official active-month CME CL daily high must be greater than $147.27. The active month rolls two business days before spot-month expiry; an exactly equal high does not qualify. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) ### What is the deadline, and can settlement come later? Each selected child has its own final trading date. For the December 31 child, use the final trading day on or before that date; allow 14 calendar days for missing final data. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) ### Does the quoted probability show an advantage? No. 10.5% is the observed Yes price for “December 31”, not a verified probability from independent research. A useful assessment needs evidence that changes the expected chance under the exact rules, plus the actual price available at the time. [1](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) ## Related market contracts - [December 31](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31) ## Market source [View the event on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) For timestamped market prices, see the canonical HTML article. Prices can change independently of this analysis. ## Sources and further reading 1. [Polymarket — event, child contracts and resolution rules](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by) 2. [cmegroup.com — official source](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) 3. [cmegroup.com — official source](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.contractSpecs.html) This is AI-assisted, source-linked explanatory journalism. We distinguish facts from interpretation and revise material errors. 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